Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Bitterly cold! Snow possible Friday-Saturday morning followed by more barbaric cold this weekend

/Issued 5:00 PM CST, Tuesday, December 13, 2016/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Water vapor satellite image, temperatures and upper level analysis from late this afternoon.

Temperatures range from -20 to -30 degrees below zero in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Province to around 80 degrees in parts of south Texas and south Florida late this afternoon.















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

18z GFS model wind chill forecast for late tonight into Wednesday morning.















Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com/

Wind Chill Advisory in effect from late tonight until Noon Wednesday for the light blue shaded area on the map.  More information at the link below.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Some changes to this map will likely be needed in coming days but here's what I'm currently thinking for snowfall totals with the late week system.















Low temperature reports for this morning, December 13, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Embarrass, MN:  -17 F
Togo, MN:  -17 F
Hibbing, MN 5 E:  -16 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  -14 F
International Falls, MN:  -14 F
Cotton, MN 3 SE:  -14 F
Isabella, MN 1 W:  -14 F
Skibo, MN;  -14 F

Longville, MN (Airport)  -13 F
Ely, MN:  -13 F
Cook, MN:  -13 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  -13 F
Orr, MN:  -13 F
Butternut, WI:  -13 F
Hayward, WI (Airport)  -12 F
Bruno, MN:  -12 F
Gordon, WI:  -12 F

Bigfork, MN:  -11 F
Duluth, MN (Airport) -11 F
Grantsburg, WI 1 WSW:  -11 F
Northome, MN;  -11 F
Solon Springs, WI:  -11 F
Walker, MN:  -10 F
Grand Rapids, MN (Airport)  -10 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW:  -10 F

Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  -10 F
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  -10 F
Hinckley, MN (Airport)  -9 F
Silver Bay, MN:  -9 F
Brainerd, MN:  -9 F
Oliver, WI 2 ENE:  -9 F
Cloquet, MN:  -9 F
Hurley, WI:  -9 F

Ashland, WI:  -8 F
Two Harbors, MN:  -8 F
Siren, WI:  -8 F
Phillips, WI:  -7 F
Superior, WI (Airport)  -7 F
Sky Harbor Airport, MN:  -6 F
Bayfield, WI:  -2 F

Coldest wind chills from this morning, December 13, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hibbing, MN 5 E:  -32 F
Duluth, MN (Airport)  -31 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  -30 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW:  -30 F
Ely, MN:  -29 F

International Falls, MN:  -29 F
Bruno, MN:  -28 F
Brainerd, MN:  -28 F
Bigfork, MN:  -28 F
Walker, MN:  -27 F

Longville, MN:  -26 F
Superior, WI (Airport)  -26 F
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  -26 F
Orr, MN:  -26 F
Cook, MN:  -26 F

Hayward, WI (Airport)  -26 F
Cloquet, MN:  -25 F
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  -25 F
Pine River, MN (Airport)  -24 F
Siren, WI:  -24 F
Sky Harbor Airport, MN:  -21 F

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1028mb was over southern Nebraska late this afternoon while a strong upper level low churns slowly S/E across Manitoba and northwest Ontario Provinces in Canada.  There was quite a bit of sunshine in the Northland today with some clouds moving into parts of northern Minnesota this afternoon.  Lake effect clouds and snow showers have been occurring over the Bayfield Peninsula in northwest Wisconsin otherwise it was generally dry today.  High temperatures were only in the single digits to around 10 above zero with late afternoon wind chills ranging from around zero to 20 below.  Winds today were out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Wednesday night (December 13-14)

A reinforcing shot of arctic air will move into the area later tonight and this arctic airmass will be over us through Thursday.

A cold front passes through the Northland tonight and Wednesday morning with a few flurries or snow showers possible as this front moves through.  Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies from tonight through Wednesday night.

Low temperatures tonight will range from around 10 below to a few degrees above zero, highs Wednesday won't recover very much as temperatures hold in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.

Winds through Wednesday night will be out of the southwest, west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wind chills tonight and Wednesday night are forecast to range from around 15 below to 35 below zero.  Wind chills Wednesday afternoon should be in the 5 below to 20 below range.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday and Friday (December 15-16)

Arctic high pressure will move into the Ohio Valley later this week while low pressure heads into the Rockies and eventually out into the southern/central Plains by Friday.

Mainly dry and very cold on Thursday with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Lows Thursday night will be in the single digits and teens below zero.

Snow is forecast to develop either Friday afternoon or Friday night with the greatest chance for snow looking to setup from east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with a lesser chance across far northern Minnesota.

Note:  Accumulating snow still looks quite probable Friday into Saturday morning in portions of the Northland with snowfall totals possibly in the 2-4" range (Locally higher amounts possible)

Behind the potential snow event Friday-Saturday morning will be another shot of bitterly cold arctic air -- Low temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night could drop into the teens, 20s and maybe even the 30s below zero in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the coldest temperatures (-30s occurring in the typical cold spots around the Northland)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 10 below to 20 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5 above.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chills 15 below to 25 below zero.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  22
Low:    8

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:46 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim