Sunday, December 4, 2016

2-5" of snow reported in the Northland today. Next system arrives Monday PM with some snow/mixed precip possible; Gusty winds, turning colder with snow showers Tue-Thu

/Issued 5:35 PM CST, Sunday, December 4, 2016/

One system moves out, the next one moves in Monday afternoon and lingers into midweek.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Wednesday morning Wind Chill forecast per 18z NAM.  Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/















Kind of an interesting setup for today with two plumes of moisture which is indicated by the numbers 1 and 2 on the map, this plus the twist (Lift) moving east out of the Dakotas helped to generate today's snowfall in the Northland.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/















Temperature departure map for the week of November 27th.  Source:  http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Last week was way above normal compared to average with the overnight lows well above normal.















Precipitation departure map for the week of November 27th.  Source:  http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Most of the Northland had above average precipitation totals last week.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source: http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 27-December 3, 2016

High temperatures:

11/27:  37 F/+8 degrees above normal
11/28:  45 F/+16 degrees above normal
11/29:  42 F/+14 degrees above normal
11/30:  37 F/+9 degrees above normal
12/1:  34 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/2:  29 F/+2 degrees above normal
12/3:  29 F/+3 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

11/27:  30 F/+14 degrees above normal
11/28:  37 F/+22 degrees above normal
11/29:  34 F/+19 degrees above normal
11/30:  34 F/+20 degrees above normal
12/1:  27 F/+13 degrees above normal
12/2:  26 F/+13 degrees above normal
12/3:  26 F/+13 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.92"
Normal:  0.37"
Departure:  +0.55" above normal

Snowfall reports for December 4, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Palmers, MN 2 WNW:  5.0"
Lester Park, MN 3 WSW:  4.5" Note:  Reported in Hunters Park in Duluth.
McKinley, MN:  4.0"
French River, MN 5 NW:  4.0"
Two Harbors, MN 1 NW:  4.0"

Silver Bay, MN:  3.3"
Hibbing, MN:  3.0"
Proctor, MN:  3.0" Note:  Reported at the top of Spirit Mountain.
Keewatin, MN 1 SE:  2.8"
Two Harbors, MN:  2.7"

Biwabik, MN 7 NW:  2.5"
Alger, MN 4 ENE:  2.4"
Garrison, MN 3 N:  2.0"
Prentice, WI 3 S:  2.0"
Esko, MN:  2.0"

Solon Springs, WI 1 S:  2.0"
Ashland, WI 2 SE:  1.5"
Winter, WI:  1.5"
Breezy Point, MN 4 NNE:  1.5"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A mild day but also a snowy one as a fairly potent disturbance moved east out of the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest while a separate disturbance moved northeast across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin -- The combination of both of those features resulted in widespread light to moderate snow across the area today with accumulations ranging from 1" to as much as 5" through 3 PM.

Highs today were generally in the lower to middle 30s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 4)

Snow showers will come to an end this evening as a trough of low pressure exits to the east.  Mostly cloudy skies for tonight with areas of fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with winds shifting from the southeast to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday (December 5)

A new area of low pressure along with its warm front and cold front will track east across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue on Monday with some snow or mixed precipitation possible at times.  Patchy fog and drizzle (Freezing drizzle in spots) are also possible through tomorrow evening.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s with lows Monday night in the 20s to around 30°.  Winds on Monday will shift to the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Winds Monday night will shift from the E/SE to the S/SW later in the night.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday and Wednesday (December 6-7)

Colder temperatures move in by midweek.  Strong area of low pressure will be centered off to our north with cold air advection and gusty winds occurring to the west/south of the surface low.  Occasional snow showers and flurries will probably occur both Tuesday and Wednesday with minor snow accumulations possible.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be in the teens and 20s but wind chills or feels like temperatures will likely range from around 10 above to 10 below zero.

Note:  Overall looking out the next two weeks or so it looks cold! Some of the coldest air may actually move into the Northland sometime during the December 12th-21st time frame, this is when the hammer could drop with brutally cold air possibly affecting us...Lows in the 20s and 30s below zero, daytime highs not getting above 0! This isn't a guarantee just yet since it's still a ways down the road but the possibility is certainly there for some epic cold air around our area by mid December.

Looks like we could also be dealing with a couple of snow events through mid December.

Lots of potential for an active/cold pattern into mid December! Will see what happens...

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Snow showers this evening with additional accumulations less than 1". Total event accumulations from today ranging from 2-4".  Areas of fog and drizzle through the night with patchy freezing drizzle also possible.  Low 26 to 30°.  Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog or drizzle possible.  Light snow or mixed precipitation possible later in the day.  High 30 to 35°.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  26
Low:   12

Sunrise Monday:  7:38 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:21 PM CST

Tim