Thursday, November 3, 2016

Unseasonably mild thru next week; Rain showers possible Sunday night-Monday

/Issued 4:55 PM CDT, Thursday, November 3, 2016/

For those that prefer colder/snowier weather in November...Well you're going to be waiting a while longer (The waiting is the hardest part, right?) The image below shows the projected temperature anomaly for the period November 12-16 per 12z GFS ensemble model from today.

Red colors=Above average temperatures
Blue colors=Below average temperatures

What is interesting about the map below is that it shows warmer than normal temperatures extending well to the north into Canada thru mid November, so where exactly is the cold air suppose to come from if there is going to a pattern change mid to late month?  Not real sure.  My best guess is that this will be a slow pattern change with temperatures gradually trending closer to average mid to late month...What is average?  That would mean that our highs would be in the 30s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, so yes obviously colder than what is occurring now and for the next week, but hardly anything out of the ordinary for this area.


















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Note:  With high temperatures forecast to be in the 60s in Duluth during the next few days, here's a look at how many Novembers have produced at least one day in the 60s.

*39 Novembers dating back to 1874 have produced at least one day in the 60s -- See list below.

Base period:  1874-2015

*2001:  7 days (Most on record)

1981:  4 days
1975:  4 days
1904:  4 days

1999:  3 days
1978:  3 days
1953:  3 days
1931:  3 days
1903:  3 days

2015:  2 days
2008:  2 days
1990:  2 days
1964:  2 days
1958:  2 days
1939:  2 days
1917:  2 days
1916:  2 days
1913:  2 days
1887:  2 days

1998:  1 day
1965:  1 day
1961:  1 day
1954:  1 day
1949:  1 day
1948:  1 day
1944:  1 day
1938:  1 day
1934:  1 day
1932:  1 day
1930:  1 day
1925:  1 day
1923:  1 day
1909:  1 day
1900:  1 day
1893:  1 day
1889:  1 day
1886:  1 day
1884:  1 day
1874:  1 day

*Not sure if this November will match the total from November 2001 of 7 days in the 60s, but I think there is a decent chance that will end up with around 4 days in the 60s this month..If that does happen then that would put us into second place for most number of days with a high temperature of at least 60 F.

Rainfall reports for November 2-3, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Gunflint Lake, MN 10W:  0.21"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.20"
Orr, MN 3E:  0.16"
International Falls, MN:  0.15"
Ely, MN 25E:  0.12"
Hurley, WI:  0.11"
Ashland, WI:  0.06"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.05"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.01"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Lots of sunshine today in east central Minnesota and in far northwest Wisconsin with highs in these areas in the mid 50s to low 60s.  It was cloudier across northern Minnesota, Arrowhead and over the rest of northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 40s.  High pressure over the area resulted in light winds today at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Friday night (November 3-4)

Areas of low clouds and possibly some fog is forecast to expand in aerial coverage tonight lingering into Friday morning with mostly sunny skies expected Friday afternoon before areas of low clouds possibly return Friday night.

Low temperatures tonight and Friday night will be in the 30s to lower 40s but a few 20s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Friday will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s...Possibly as warm as 66-68 degrees around the Brainerd Lakes area.

Light and variable wind tonight and Friday night; Southwest winds on Friday at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Saturday and Sunday (November 5-6)

Unseasonably mild and dry conditions continue this weekend -- High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the 40s but a few 30s are possible in the traditional cold spots.

Analysis:

Cold front that came through last night lifts back to the northeast as a warm front tonight, this warm front then drops south as a cold front Friday night before lifting northeast again as a warm front on Saturday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear this evening then partly to mostly cloudy late.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Low clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies.  High 61 to 65.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Note:  A top 3 warmest November 4th is possible.  3rd warmest is 63 degrees in 1981; 2nd warmest 67 degrees in 2008; warmest is 69 degrees in 1975.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  42
Low:   28

Sunrise Friday:  7:56 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   5:48 PM CDT

Tim