Friday, November 25, 2016

Unseasonably mild thru the middle of next week; Rain Sunday night-Monday (Isolated t-storms also possible)

/Issued 4:53 PM CST, Friday, November 25, 2016/

I wish I had better news for people who like snow and or cold but I don't, at least for now.  The next several days look mild, and rain chances increase Sunday night as a slow moving storm approaches from the southwest.















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

HRRR model visibility forecast valid for early Saturday morning.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















November 2016 is on track to rank in the top 3 warmest Novembers in history at Duluth, Minnesota.  The average temperature thru November 24th:  41.2 degrees; +10.9 degrees above normal.

Top 3 warmest Novembers on record at Duluth

1:  40.6 degrees set in 1899
2:  39.5 degrees set in 2001
3:  37.9 degrees set in 2009

Note:  Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild (Especially the low temperatures) thru the end of the month, now it's just a matter of where will this November rank.  I think there is a shot we stay warmer than Nov 1899, but if we don't there is no doubt in my mind that this November would finish as 2nd warmest.  Stay tuned!

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Mild temperatures but generally mostly cloudy skies continued today along with patchy drizzle or snow flurries.  Highs were in the 30s, winds were out of the west or south at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 25)

Mostly cloudy skies.  Areas of fog.  Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle.  Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.  Winds out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday (November 26)

Areas of fog, drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle tomorrow morning, otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Mostly cloudy Saturday night with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Sunday through Wednesday (November 27-30)

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move into the western High Plains on Sunday, this system will lift slowly north/east into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday or Wednesday (29th-30th)

A lot of warm air with this storm meaning that most of the precipitation falls as rain across the Northland from Sunday night through Monday evening -- The only area/s that could see some sleet, snow or freezing rain mix in with the rain would be over extreme northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead.  Note:  A few thunderstorms are even possible in parts of the area either late Sunday night or Monday as weak elevated instability moves up from the south.

Temperatures will start to cool off enough to support a rain/snow mix changing to snow shower scenario over most of the Northland by mid week but not expecting much snow accumulation the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Areas of fog possible in the morning otherwise mostly cloudy but some breaks in the clouds are possible in the afternoon.  High 34 to 39.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  30
Low:   16

Sunrise Saturday:  7:27 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim