Thursday, November 10, 2016

Storm potential Nov 17-19 (Rain/Snow) Before then a brief cool down Friday; Warming up again this weekend-early next week.

/Issued 4:46 PM CST, Thursday, November 10, 2016/

Still a ways out but long range model trends have been consistent in showing a storm system for late next week, this storm if it does develop could affect the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Stay tuned.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















*Record Events*

-Record high temperature tied at Duluth, Minnesota on November 10th, 2016.  High temperature was 64 degrees which ties the record high temperature from 1917.

-Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota on November 9th, 2016.  High temperature was 65 degrees which broke the previous record high of 64 degrees which was set in 2010.

Check out these stats below

Duluth, Minnesota:

November 4th:  Tied the record high temperature of 69 degrees.

November 5th:  Record high temperature broken - High was 70 degrees.

November 6th:  Record high temperature broken - High was 70 degrees.

November 7th:  3rd warmest high temperature on record - High was 60 degrees.

November 9th:  2nd warmest high temperature on record - High was 61 degrees.

November 10th:  Tied the record high temperature of 64 degrees.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

The first 9 days of November were the warmest on record with an average temperature of 49.3 degrees (+15.1 degrees above average)

*The warmest November on record occurred in 1899 with an average temperature of 40.6 degrees.  Note:  Thru the first 9 days of November 2016 were running +8.7 degrees warmer than the record warmest November from 1899.

*102 days this year with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees, this is tied with 2015 and 2013 for 4th greatest number of 70 degree days.  See top 5 list below

1)  109 days in 2012
2)  106 days in 1955
3)  105 days in 1987 and 1963
4)  102 days in 2016, 2015 and 2013
5)  101 days in 2001

*6 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees -- This is the 2nd greatest number of 60 degree days during the month of November.  The record is 7 days set in 2001.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Gusty winds, unseasonably warm temperatures and a lot of sunshine across the Northland today.  Highs today were in the 50s and 60s with winds shifting from SW to NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

A cold front moved through the area today with impressive 12-hour 500mb height falls of 90-180 meters from Ontario Province south into the Northland.  Cold air advection is pouring into our area this afternoon with 850mb temperatures ranging from +4C in far northern Minnesota to +10C in far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Sub-zero 850mb temperatures were found over central Canada, and this airmass will move into the Northland by late tonight.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 10)

Clear skies this evening will become partly to mostly cloudy during the night.  Turning colder but more or less closer to average as low temperatures fall into the 20s and 30s, maybe some teens in the typical cold spots in northern Minnesota.  Winds will remain out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph as cold air advection continues tonight.  Note:  There could be a few light rain or snow showers late tonight in far northeast Minnesota.

Friday (November 11)

High pressure moves into the Upper Midwest with temperatures on Friday around 15-20 degrees cooler than today as high temperatures top out in the low/mid 40s, believe it or not this is still slightly warmer than average for November 11th but it will feel quite a bit cooler compared to the recent warmth we have felt around here.

Low temperatures Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Duluth might actually get colder than 30 degrees Friday night -- If that does happen then it would be the first time this fall with a low temperature in the 20s (We already set the record latest date for the first sub-30 degree low temperature back on November 7th)

.Extended Forecast...

Saturday and Sunday (November 12-13)

Mainly dry this weekend and warming up once again as gusty southwest winds develop as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley region.  High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s, but certainly can't rule out a 60 degree temperature depending on sky conditions.  Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Clear with skies turning partly to mostly cloudy late.  Low 31 to 36.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Friday...  Cooler compared to recent days/weeks/months.  Mostly sunny.  High 41 to 46.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  38
Low:   25

Sunrise Friday:  7:07 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:39 PM CST

Tim