Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Sprinkles/light rain showers possible tonight; Around 50 with some sun on Thursday; 60s Fri (Top 3 warmest Nov 4 on record possible in Duluth)

/Issued 5:02 PM CDT, Wednesday, November 2, 2016/

850mb temperature anomaly forecast for Friday, November 4, 2016 per 12z European Ensemble model.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Colors on the maps below:

Red/Pink=Above average temperatures
Blue=Below average temperatures













850mb temperature anomaly forecast for Friday, November 11, 2016 per 12z European Ensemble model.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Just can't break out of this pattern -- The torch continues for now.




























Water temperature of Lake Superior remains above average in early November with the average surface water temperature at around 50 degrees.  Source:  https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov

Red line on the graph=2016 water temperature
Blue line on graph=Average water temperature from 1992-2015
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Note:  The average date for the last 60 degree high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota is October 26  - Base period 1981-2010.

Here's a look at when the last 60 degree high temperature has occurred at Duluth from 2000-2015.

2015:  November 5
2014:  October 24
2013:  October 12
2012:  October 16
2011:  October 12
2010:  October 22
2009:  September 27
2008:  November 4
2007:  October 30
2006:  October 8
2005:  October 29
2004:  October 23
2003:  October 20
2002:  October 11
2001:  November 17
2000:  October 31

I think the last 60 degree high temperature will come later this year compared to last year but probably not as late as in 2001 when it didn't happen until November 17.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A weak cold front has been moving into the Northland this afternoon -- As of 2 PM this front extended from west central to northeast Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found over the area today with a few sprinkles or light rain showers occurring in parts of east central Minnesota.  Highs today were in the 50s with a few locations at or very close to 60 degrees while mid 40s were common in extreme northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 2)

A cold front will continue to move E/SE through most of the Northland tonight.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers are expected tonight with lows in the 30s to lower 40s but a few 20s can't be ruled out in the traditional cold spots up in northern Minnesota if skies are less cloudy than expected.  Winds tonight will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday (November 3)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees except in the Arrowhead of Minnesota where highs will be in mid/upper 40s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds from the north, east or south on Thursday and out of the south or southwest Thursday night.  Weather map on Thursday will find tonight's cold front turning into a warm front while it lifts northeast through the Northland; High pressure passes north/east of our local area.

.Extended Forecast...

Friday and Saturday (November 4-5)

Unseasonably warm and dry.  High temperatures on Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the 60s with 50s over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Note:  Average high temperatures in the Northland are generally in the low/mid 40s in early November.  Low temperatures Friday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

*Record or near record warmth is possible in Duluth from Nov 4-7*

Listed below are the top 3 warmest high temperatures on record for the aforementioned time period.

November 4:

1) 69 degrees in 1975
67 degrees in 2008
63 degrees in 1981

November 5:

1) 68 degrees in 1975
66 degrees in 2001
61 degrees in 2015

November 6:

1) 66 degrees in 1916
65 degrees in 2001
64 degrees in 1934

November 7:

1) 65 degrees in 1874
62 degrees in 1949
61 degrees in 1983

Note:  We might not break the record high temperature on any of those dates listed above but I think there is a good chance for a top 3 warmest high temperature on November 4, 5, 6 and 7 the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few sprinkles or light rain showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming north late.

.Thursday...  Clouds in the morning giving way to more sun than clouds during the afternoon.  High 50 to 55.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  43
Low:   28

Sunrise Thursday:  7:55 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   5:49 PM CDT

Tim