Friday, November 4, 2016

Record or near record high temperatures continue thru the weekend

/Issued 5:32 PM CDT, Friday, November 4, 2016/

Highs today 20-30 degrees warmer than normal in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Visible satellite image from late this afternoon showing generally clear skies from the Dakotas to Wisconsin.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/
















Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Image below shows the 250mb wind speeds from Friday morning, November 4 per 18z GFS model.













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















*Record Event*

Tied the record high temperature of 69 degrees at the Duluth Airport today, November 4, 2016.  The previous record was set in 1975.

Weather Tidbits:

*This November will go into the books as the 40th November since records began (1874) to produce at least one 60 degree temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  The most on record occurred in November 2001 with 7 days in the 60s.

*The temperature didn't officially hit 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport today but in other parts of town it did.  How rare how 70 degree temperatures in Duluth during the month of November?  Only 4 Novembers dating back to 1874 have produced a temperature of 70 degrees or warmer.  See list below.

1903:  2 days
1991:  1 day
1978:  1 day
1904:  1 day

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

I figured Duluth would be looking at a top 3 warmest November 4th on record but I didn't think it would get this warm! The weather maps look more like July than November with a massive upper level ridge covering the Plains today with 500mb heights of 576-582 across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest -- Unbelievable for November.  Late afternoon 850mb temperatures were sitting at around +12 degrees Celsius over the Northland with 925mb temperatures at around +14 degrees Celsius -- Both of which are incredibly warm for this time of year.  High temperatures today overachieved with mid 60s and low 70s common over most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lower 60s in extreme northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead.  Winds today were out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Sunday (November 4-6)

Little change in our weather through the weekend with high pressure firmly in control.  Yes there could be some clouds that drift through parts of the Northland on occasion but no precipitation is expected through Sunday.  Tonight and Saturday night's lows will be in the 30s and 40s, possibly a few 20s tonight in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Saturday rebounding into the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Highs on Sunday should be similar with 60s and possibly near 70 degree temperatures once again.  Winds tonight through Sunday will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible during the afternoon hours both Saturday and Sunday.

.Extended Forecast...

Monday (November 7)

A cold front is forecast to move through the area on Monday which could bring some rain showers and more cloud cover to the Northland -- Highs are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Note:  It looks a tad cooler but still a little warmer than average on Tuesday, then another warm bubble moves overhead on Wednesday before another shot of cooler air arrives late next week, most likely on Friday (11th) the way it looks now.  Note:  I don't see any persistent cold airmass affecting us at least through November 15th, any shots of somewhat cooler temperatures we happen to get before mid November should be very brief the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind west at around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Some morning clouds possible otherwise mostly sunny.  Unseasonably mild.  High 64 to 69.  Wind becoming south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Note:  Record or near record warmth possible.  3rd warmest is 61 degrees in 2015.  2nd warmest is 66 degrees in 2001.  Warmest is 68 degrees in 1975.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  42
Low:   27

Sunrise Saturday:  7:57 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   5:46 PM CDT

Tim