Friday, November 18, 2016

Rain changes to snow this morning over the hill in Duluth; Rain to snow this afternoon below the hill

/Issued 4:22 AM CST, Friday, November 18, 2016/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/















Upper Midwest radar loop through 3:45 AM, Friday, November 18, 2016.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/













Images below are from the 08z HRRR model run for today, Friday, November 18.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precipitation

9 AM
















12 PM















3 PM















Early morning update:

*Rain turned to a little bit of snow between 1-3 AM this morning over the hill in Duluth but the main area of snow has remained west-north of the city so far which has been expected up to this point.

*4 AM temperatures range from 36 degrees at the Airport to 39 degrees at the Duluth Harbor and Superior.  These temperatures will continue to fall slowly through the day.

*Rain and snow is forecast to continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the morning hours with heavier bands of precipitation expected mid to late morning and through the afternoon.

*The most difficult part of this forecast is the changeover time from rain to snow in the Twin Ports.  An earlier changeover is still expected over the hill in Duluth ( 9 AM - Noon today)  But in lower elevation, below the hill in Duluth, the changeover might not occur until around 2-3 PM Today.

*How far west the heaviest band of snow sets up is still a little uncertain as well with subtle trends in the late night computer models slightly more to the west-northwest vs. earlier model runs, but really isn't too much of a difference.

*As for snow totals -- I'm thinking around 6" at the Duluth Airport (Possibly a little more although I'm not very confident of totals exceeding the 6" mark)  Below the hill in Duluth and Superior a range from around 1" to 4".

*Heaviest snowfall accumulations of 10-15" will be west and north of Duluth today/this evening.

*Gusty winds out of the north will continue through tonight.  Expect areas of blowing snow and poor visibility due to falling and blowing snow.

Note:  Snowfall map and headline map can be found in a previous blog post from Thursday evening, not much change in the snowfall map.

Tim