Thursday, November 17, 2016

Powerful winter storm to bring heavy snow, mixed precip and rain changing to snow across the Northland on Friday; Subzero lows possible this weekend in northern Minnesota

/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Thursday, November 17, 2016/

Here's my updated snowfall accumulation map for Friday's winter storm.  A tight snowfall gradient! I'm thinking 6-9", maybe up to 10" of snow over the hill in Duluth, lesser amounts below the hill, generally in the 2-6" range with the lower end of that range if the changeover happens later than expected.











Updated headlines map.  Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com/















Here's a zoomed in headlines map for the Northland.











Forecast surface maps and expected weather conditions on Friday.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/








































Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Probability for snowfall reaching or exceeding 4", 8" and 12" thru 6 PM Friday on the maps below.















*Winter Storm Warning* for Duluth Friday morning through early Saturday morning (9 AM Friday to 6 AM Saturday)

-Light rain and drizzle will begin this evening and continue through the night.  East/northeast winds will increase throughout the night with gusts of 20-30 mph developing.

-Rain is expected to become mixed with snow Friday morning on top of the hill in Duluth with a changeover to all snow occurring sometime between 10 AM and Noon.  Snow will fall Friday afternoon and evening.  Snow could be heavy at times Friday afternoon with 1" per hour snowfall rates possible.

-Below the hill in Duluth expect the rain to changeover to snow sometime between Noon - 2 PM Friday with periods of heavy snow possible mid to late Friday afternoon.

-Snow will taper off late Friday night.

-Snowfall storm total accumulations by Friday night are forecast to range from 6 to 9" (Maybe up to 10") on top of the hill in Duluth to between 2-6" below the hill in Duluth.  Note:  If the changeover from rain to snow happens later than expected, then snowfall totals near Lake Superior will likely only amount to around 2" at best.

-Strong northeast winds Friday morning will shift to the north/northwest Friday afternoon, gusty N/NW winds will then continue Friday night and Saturday morning.  Wind gusts 20-30 mph.

-Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly during the day on Friday once the rain changes to snow.  The combination of falling temperatures, strong winds and falling snow will lead to icy/snow covered/compacted roads Friday afternoon/night.  Visibility could drop to a quarter mile at times in falling and blowing snow.

-After the storm moves away temperatures will be much colder this weekend especially considering how warm this month/fall has been around here.  Subzero low temperatures are possible Saturday night and Sunday night across northern Minnesota if skies are clear.

-Wind chills (Feels like temperatures) are expected to fall into the single digits and teens Friday night into Saturday morning.

*Winter Storm Warning information from the National Weather Service http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

*Blizzard warning information from the National Weather Service http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=blizzard%20warning

*Winter weather advisory information from the National Weather Service http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Tim