Monday, November 7, 2016

Nearly 15 degrees above average so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota - incredible! Still mild this week but a pattern change leading to colder temps mid-late month

/Issued 4:44 PM CST, Monday, November 7, 2016/











This coming Friday will finally feel more like November in the Northland as a quick shot of colder temperatures moves over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, right now it looks like daytime highs will be in the 30s or lower 40s on Friday which is near normal for November 11th.  Friday night's low temperatures may actually dip into the 20s at the Duluth Airport, if it does that would be the first time for that to happen this fall.

Also looks like there could be some lake effect showers in the form of rain or snow in the N/NW wind favored areas along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.  Doesn't look like this would be a big lake effect event, however, with little or no snow accumulation expected at the moment.

















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Looking at another shot of colder temperatures centered on the middle of next week (15th-17th) This one might have a little more staying power compared to the one that hits later this week but since it's over a week away things could certainly change.
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/
















High temperature reports for Sunday, November 6, 2016
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*=Daily record high temperature

Duluth, MN:  *70 F
International Falls, MN:  *71 F
Brainerd, MN:  68 F
Hibbing, MN:  68 F
Ashland, WI:  72 F
Hayward, WI:  69 F
Sky Harbor, MN:  70 F
Two Harbors, MN:  72 F
Silver Bay, MN:  68 F
Ely, MN:  70 F
Orr, MN:  70 F
Cook, MN:  70 F
Bigfork, MN:  72 F
Longville, MN:  70 F
Aitkin, MN:  72 F
Hinckley, MN:  70 F
McGregor, MN:  70 F
Walker, MN (Airport)  68 F
Superior, WI:  73 F
Solon Springs, WI:  70 F
Siren, WI:  70 F
Phillips, WI:  68 F
Togo, MN:  69 F
Cotton, MN:  69 F
Kabetogama, MN:  70 F
Hurley, WI:  72 F
Park Falls, WI:  69 F

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*The average temperature from November 1-6, 2016:  49.6 degrees; +14.4 degrees above normal (Incredible!) So close to being the warmest November 1-6 on record, but that goes to November 1-6, 1975 with an average temperature of 49.9 degrees.

*3rd warmest low temperature on record on November 6, 2016.  Low temperature was 45 degrees.  2nd warmest low temperature:  48 degrees in 1913.  Warmest low temperature:  52 degrees in 1975.

*Today, November 7, 2016 -- 3rd warmest high temperature on record at 61 degrees.  2nd warmest is 62 degrees in 1949.  Warmest is 65 degrees in 1874.

*The period from October 15-November 7 has had 18/24 days with a high temperature of 50 degrees or warmer -- The coldest high temperature since October 15 is 42 degrees back on October 26.

*Today, November 7 is the 8th consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees (31st-7th)

*Record Event*

Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota today, November 7, 2016.  New record 64 degrees.  Old record 63 degrees set in 1981 and 1969.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Another warm day although a tad cooler compared to recent days but still well above normal for early November.  Highs today were in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  A cold front was moving into the Northland this afternoon.  Little if any rain has been occurring near this front but skies were cloudier today compared to the past few days.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 7)

Cold air advection spreads into the Northland tonight behind a cold front which exits to the south/east this evening.  High pressure over the northern Plains with low pressure well to the north will cause winds to shift to a northwesterly direction later tonight, this will help usher in cooler temperatures with 850mb temperatures falling from around +8C early this evening to around +2C by daybreak.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s to lower 40s which is still above normal although it will be a good 10-20 degrees colder compared to the low temperatures from this morning.  It will be windy at times tonight with wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph possible.

Tuesday (November 8)

Will have cooler temperatures over the area on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  These forecasted temperatures are still above average though but a far cry from the 65-70 degree temperatures that we have seen recently.  Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 30s with 20s possible in the typical cold spots.  High pressure builds E/SE out of the northern Plains Tuesday resulting in a partly or mostly cloudy sky.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (November 9-10)

High temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected for Wednesday and Thursday as another upper level ridge builds east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures of +10 to +15C move over the Northland for a time Wednesday evening-Thursday morning while 500mb heights build to ~576 dm.  Note:  This midweek pattern looks quite similar to this past weekend but it doesn't look like will get as warm as we were this past Friday-Sunday.

Expect dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday but a strong cold front moves across the area Thursday afternoon/night which may lead to a few spotty rain showers but overall the dry weather pattern looks to continue through the end of the week.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  40
Low:   26

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:02 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:42 PM CST

Tim