Sunday, November 20, 2016

More snow on the way for Tuesday-Wednesday

/Issued 3:55 PM CST, Sunday, November 20, 2016/

3 PM Power Outage Update:

Lake Country Power

Number of outages:  96
Members affected:  1,866

Note:  Progress is being made in restoring power across northeastern Minnesota in wake of the powerful winter storm this past Friday.  The number of people without power was at around 3,000 this morning, but has been reduced to around 1,800 late this afternoon.

Link to the Lake Country Power Outage Map http://mi.lcp.coop:82/

Here's my preliminary snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Tuesday and Wednesday.











Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/















Here's the visible satellite loop which shows the Nipigon-Superior connection today.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Temperature departure map for the week of November 13th.  Last week ended much colder, but prior to that, temperatures were still well above average, the week overall was above average across the Northland.















Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Precipitation departure map for the week of November 13th.

Above average precipitation last week in northeast Minnesota with near to above average totals in northwest Wisconsin.
















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 13-19, 2016

High temperatures:

11/13:  59 F/+22 degrees above normal
11/14:  48 F/+12 degrees above normal
11/15:  54 F/+18 degrees above normal
11/16:  48 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/17:  48 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/18:  40 F/+6 degrees above normal
11/19:  26 F/-8 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

11/13:  38 F/+15 degrees above normal
11/14:  41 F/+18 degrees above normal
11/15:  34 F/+12 degrees above normal
11/16:  31 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/17:  37 F/+16 degrees above normal
11/18:  26 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/19:  18 F/-2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.14"
Normal:  0.51"
Departure:  +0.63" above normal

Weather Tidbits:

-Low temperature of 10 degrees at the Duluth Airport today, November 20th, 2016.  Coldest minimum temperature since April 9th.

-November 2016 thru the 19th continues to be the warmest on record at Duluth, Minnesota with an average temperature of 44.8 degrees or +4.2 degrees warmer than November 1899 (40.6 degrees)  Will see where this month will end up (rank wise) 10 days from now.  Doubtful that it will remain at the number one spot.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies in the area today with highs generally in the 20s.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (November 20)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather tonight resulting in mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Note:  There could be a few lake effect snow showers or flurries later tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Monday (November 21)

A few flurries are possible especially during the morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior - Otherwise mainly dry on Monday under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High pressure will be centered to our north/east while low pressure and a trough move into the northern Plains/western high Plains.  Highs on Monday in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Monday night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday and Wednesday (November 22-23)

Snow and possibly some mixed precipitation on the way! Sort of a dual system to deal with for Tuesday and Wednesday with energy in the northern stream and energy with the southern stream, the stronger system will be the one over the central Plains that'll then track toward the east/northeast, passing well to the southeast of our local area.

Looks like a long duration snow event in most of the Northland although a lot of this snow should be on the light side the way it looks now.  Temperatures at the surface will be marginal during this event, likely hovering around the freezing mark especially around Lake Superior, the snow that falls will probably be on the wet side.

Note:  The temperatures aloft during the Tuesday-Wednesday event are expected to remain cold enough to support snow as the main precipitation type throughout the Northland, but milder air flowing off Lake Superior could cause the snow to mix with drizzle/rain especially on Wednesday near the big lake.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind variable less than 10 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 29 to 34.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  32
Low:   19

Sunrise Monday:  7:20 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim