Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Mild temperatures into next week - Record/near record warmth possible in Duluth Nov 4-7. October climate summaries in this post

/Issued 5:11 PM CDT, Tuesday, November 1, 2016/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















October 2016 temperature departure map.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/




















October 2016 precipitation departure map.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/




















October 2016 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  47.6 degrees
Normal:  43.2 degrees
Departure:  +4.4 degrees above normal

Warmest high temperature:  74 F on the 10th
Warmest low temperature:  52 F on the 4th

Coldest high temperature:  42 F on the 26th
Coldest low temperature:  30 F on the 9th

12 days with a high temperature of at least 60 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 70 F

5 days with a low temperature of 32 F or below

Total precipitation:  1.55"
Normal:  2.85"
Departure:  -1.30" below normal

Heaviest daily rainfall total:  0.39" on the 16th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  8
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  6

Total snowfall:  Trace
Normal:  2.3"
Departure:  -2.3" below normal

Notes:

*3 thunderstorm days

*October was the 6th consecutive month of above normal temperatures (May-October)

October 2015 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  46.3 degrees
Departure:  +3.1 degrees above normal

7 days with a high temperature of at least 60 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 70 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 80 F

4 days with a low temperature of 32 F or below

Total precipitation:  1.90"
Departure:  -0.95" below normal

Total snowfall:  Trace
Departure:  -2.3" below normal

October 2016 climate summaries for select cities

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  44.6 degrees
Departure:  +3.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.48"
Departure:  -0.60" below normal

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Average temperature:  52.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.0 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.41"
Departure:  +0.98" above normal

***2 thunderstorm days***

Note:  14th consecutive month of above normal temperatures

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Average temperature:  48.9 degrees
Departure:  +3.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.68"
Departure:  +0.19" above normal

***1 thunderstorm day***

Note:  14th consecutive month of above normal temperatures

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Average temperature:  51.1 degrees
Departure:  +3.8 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.72"
Departure:  +0.38" above normal

Marquette, Michigan:

Average temperature:  46.0 degrees
Departure:  +2.8 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.83"
Departure:  -1.01" below normal

***1 thunderstorm day***

Note:  Were in the final month of Meteorological Fall 2016 -- The average temperature so far this Fall at Duluth, Minnesota 53.8 degrees which is +4.4 degrees warmer than normal.  Fall 2015 thru October 31st had an average temperature of 53.9 degrees or +4.5 degrees warmer than normal. So temperatures have been running fairly similar this fall vs. last fall (So far)

- It's been a dry Autumn so far with 5.07" of precipitation since September 1st which is -1.89" below normal.  Fall 2015 precipitation total thru October 31st was 8.71" or +1.75" above normal.  So this fall has been drier than last fall.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Quite a bit of sunshine today south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota and in all of northwest Wisconsin (That's something we haven't seen in a while)  Sky conditions in northern Minnesota were mostly cloudy to partly sunny.  Highs today were in the 50s to lower 60s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin which is 10-15 degrees above average for November 1st.  Highs in northern Minnesota were in the mid to upper 40s which is still above average by around 5 degrees.  Winds today were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts especially this morning.  Surface map at 3 PM had low pressure of 1000mb over northeast Ontario Province with high pressure of 1014mb over the northern Plains.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Wednesday night (November 1-2)

There will be a weak cold front that'll move slowly south/east through the Northland by Wednesday night.  Generally dry through tomorrow night but a few sprinkles or light rain showers can't be ruled out in parts of the area on Wednesday but this won't be a big deal.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected tonight through Wednesday night.

Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night in the 30s to lower 40s.  Highs on Wednesday in the 50s with lower 60s possible over southern portions of the Northland.

Winds tonight through Wednesday evening will be out of the west, southwest or northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday (November 3)

Dry with highs in the 50s except in the Arrowhead and far northern Minnesota where highs will be in the mid/upper 40s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Friday (November 4)

Unseasonably mild for early November -- Mid level heights are forecast to build to around 576 meters which is unusual this far north for the time of the year.  Highs are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

*Record or near record warmth is possible in Duluth from Nov 4-7*

Listed below are the top 3 warmest high temperatures on record for the aforementioned time period.

November 4:

1) 69 degrees in 1975
67 degrees in 2008
63 degrees in 1981

November 5:

1) 68 degrees in 1975
66 degrees in 2001
61 degrees in 2015

November 6:

1) 66 degrees in 1916
65 degrees in 2001
64 degrees in 1934

November 7:

1) 65 degrees in 1874
62 degrees in 1949
61 degrees in 1983

Note:  We might not break the record high temperature on any of those dates listed above but I think there is a good chance for a top 3 warmest high temperature on November 4, 5, 6 and 7 the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  43
Low:   29

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:53 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   5:50 PM CDT

Tim