Wednesday, November 30, 2016

December 2016 Long Range Outlook for Duluth, Minnesota

/Issued November 30, 2016/

CFSv2 temperature forecast for the month of December.

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Blue colors=Below normal temperatures
Orange colors=Above normal temperatures
White=Near normal temperatures

Minnesota:  Generally near normal to slightly above normal temperatures is what the CFS model is forecasting.

Wisconsin:  Slightly above normal temperatures statewide.














CFSv2 Precipitation forecast for the month of December.

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin is in slightly above normal precipitation totals in December per CFS model.

Green=Above normal precipitation
Yellow=Below normal precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation














December averages at Duluth, Minnesota:

Base Period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  14.8 degrees
Precipitation:  1.21"
Snowfall:  17.7"

Normal high on the 1st:  27 degrees; falling to 14 degrees on the 31st

Average low on the 1st:  14 degrees; falling to 3 degrees on the 31st

Warmest December on record:  32.7 degrees in 1877
Coldest December on record:  1.8 degrees in 1983

Wettest December on record:  3.89" in 1879
Snowiest December on record:  44.3" in 1950

Driest December on record:  0.07" in 1905
Least snowiest December on record:  0.9" in 1905

Base period:  1981-2010

Average number of days with a subzero low temperature:  10
Average number of days with at least 0.1" of snowfall:  13

Astronomical data for December

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:53 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  4:22 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  4:30 PM CST

Outlook for December:

*Temperature:  Around 18 degrees or ~3.0 degrees above average

*Number of subzero nights:  4-7

Summary:  Although I'm still calling for above average temperatures in December, it's highly unlikely will have persistent warmth like we had during most of November -- I am expecting a few shots of cold temperatures throughout the month but these cold shots could be transient, meaning they won't stick around for very long, however, if the colder airmasses linger for a while, then it's likely that my temperature forecast will bust on the high side.

Snowfall:  Slightly above average in December.  I'm thinking will end up with around 20" of snow, the average is 17.7".

Summary:  Multiple storm systems should cross the U.S. during the month of December, as is always the case, the storm tracks will be crucial in determining how much or how little snow we get here in Duluth, there is also a chance that one or two of these systems take an unfavorable track which could lead to precipitation type issues (Rain or Ice instead of all snow)

Tim