Sunday, October 16, 2016

Showers and thunderstorms later tonight (A few of the storms could be on the strong side) 1st half of October climate stats in this post

/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Sunday, October 16, 2016/

Source, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














Source, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














Source, http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Temperature departure map for the week of October 9th.  Source, http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Orange and red colors=Above average temperatures
Yellow and green colors=Near to below average temperatures
















Precipitation departure map for the week of October 9th.  Source, http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Below average precipitation last week over most of the Northland.
















October 1-15, 2016 temperature departure map.  Source, http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/




















October 1-15, 2016 precipitation departure map.  Source, http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 9-16, 2016

High temperatures:

10/9:  53 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/10:  74 F/+20 degrees above normal
10/11:  62 F/+8 degrees above normal
10/12:  45 F/-8 degrees below normal
10/13:  51 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/14:  60 F/+7 degrees above normal
10/15:  68 F/+16 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

10/9:  30 F/-7 degrees below normal
10/10:  47 F/+10 degrees above normal
10/11:  44 F/+8 degrees above normal
10/12:  37 F/+1 degree above normal
10/13:  34 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/14:  40 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/15:  45 F/+10 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.03"
Normal:  0.67"
Departure:  -0.64" below normal

1st half of October climate summaries for select cities

October 1-15, 2016

Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  50.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.69"
Departure:  -0.86" below normal

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  48.5 degrees
Departure:  +4.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.89"
Departure:  -0.23" below normal

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Average temperature:  55.4 degrees
Departure:  +3.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.79"
Departure:  -1.13" below normal

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Average temperature:  51.4 degrees
Departure:  +2.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.60"
Departure:  +0.21" above normal

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Average temperature:  53.9 degrees
Departure:  +3.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.72"
Departure:  -0.58" below normal

Marquette, Michigan

Average temperature:  50.1 degrees
Departure:  +3.7 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.89"
Departure:  -1.13" below normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 16, 2016

Mostly sunny skies this morning and early this afternoon has given way to increasing clouds over the area late this afternoon.  Cooler today compared to Saturday but still above average today with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s with the warmest temperatures found in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Winds today shifted to the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph especially near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 16)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in western-southwest areas this evening with storms then tracking E/NE during the overnight hours.  Elevated instability increases through the night with CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg along with steep mid level lapse rates.  A few of the storms could become strong to severe in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with hail being the primary hazard.  Heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning will also occur in and near these storms later tonight.

A warm front currently west and south of Minnesota will lift north/east tonight.  A strong low level jet of 30-50 knots out of the south will advect deeper moisture and elevated instability north into our area tonight helping to set the stage for scattered convection later tonight.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Monday (October 17)

A frontal boundary will setup from south central Minnesota to north central Wisconsin on Monday as low pressure develops over east central Nebraska - This low is then forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast to central Wisconsin Monday night and to the northeast of Lake Superior by Tuesday morning.  Note:  The central pressure of this low is projected to deepen from 996mb Monday morning to around 984mb by Tuesday morning.

Occasional showers are expected Monday and Monday night with the better chances for rain looking to be from Monday afternoon through late Monday night.

Thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow especially over northwest Wisconsin and possibly into east central Minnesota.

Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday night in the 40s to lower 50s.

Winds tomorrow will be out of the east, north or south.  Winds tomorrow night out of the north, northwest or northeast.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday and Wednesday (October 18-19)

Can't rule out a few spotty showers during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame but this shouldn't be a very big deal.  High temperatures on Tuesday in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Lows Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Wednesday ranging from upper 30s and 40s across northern Minnesota with 50s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Occasional showers and thunderstorms developing especially after 9 PM.  Areas of drizzle or fog possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Areas of drizzle or fog possible mainly early otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional showers possible.  High 55 to 60.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  51
Low:   35

Sunrise Monday:  7:30 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:17 PM CDT

Tim