Monday, October 3, 2016

Severe t'storms; Winter storm warning; Hurricane Matthew - Active weather pattern! Rain moves into Duluth late Tuesday night with low clouds and fog tonight-Tue AM

/Issued 4:50 PM CDT, Monday, October 3, 2016/

An active week of weather across the U.S.

Multiple low pressure systems affecting the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this week while for the southeast U.S. its all about Hurricane Matthew and the eventual track of this hurricane.  Much more uncertainty if Matthew will affect the northeast U.S. this weekend or early in the following week (Oct 9-10 time frame)















Visible satellite image from 3:30 PM today, Monday, October 3, 2016.  Source, http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo.html




















Fun times for weather geeks! Snow and severe weather tonight from the northern Rockies to the western High Plains.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
















Tuesday's severe weather outlook.  Source, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html














Excessive rainfall forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday until 7 AM Wednesday.  Source, http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw















Kind of unusual to see so many tornado warnings and severe thunderstorms warnings on Sunday over the western U.S., unusual considering where these warnings occurred and also for the time of year.  Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html

Note:  Tornado warnings in red; Severe thunderstorm warnings in dark blue













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php




















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 3, 2016

A very nice fall day across the Northland with highs today in the low to mid 70s which is 10 to nearly 20 degrees degrees warmer than normal for early October.  It was cooler though near Lake Superior where high temperatures stayed in the 50s to lower 60s today thanks to an easterly wind.  Areas of low clouds and fog this morning gave way to nearly full sunshine throughout the area this afternoon but just offshore of Lake Superior was a large area of low clouds and probably some fog, and some of this has been moving west affecting Downtown Duluth and Superior this afternoon.  Winds today were out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Surface map late this afternoon had low pressure of 996mb over southeast Montana with another low of 994mb over eastern Colorado.  A cold front was over the western High Plains.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 3)

Clear to partly cloudy with areas of low clouds and fog developing during the night.  Low temperatures in the 40s and 50s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday (October 4)

Low clouds and fog possible around Lake Superior otherwise partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday and mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night.  A few showers are possible over western portions of the area tomorrow - A better chance for rain arrives Tuesday night in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

A cold front will move east out of the northern Plains tomorrow but likely won't move into the Northland until late Tuesday night the way it looks now.  A strong S-SE low level jet at 40-60 knots is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front Tuesday night with higher amounts of moisture advecting northward into our area as PWATS climb to between 1.25-1.50".  Rain will develop or move into the Northland as the front approaches Tuesday night.

Highs tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday night in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday (October 5)

A cold front exits the Northland to the E-NE with rain during the morning in parts of the area followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon.  Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday night mainly in the 40s but 30s are possible in northwest portions of the area.

Thursday and Friday (October 6-7)

More rain chances for later this week as another area of low pressure develops and lifts northeast out of the central Plains.  There's still uncertainty on the track of this low later this week, if it goes too far east then most of the Northland would likely miss out on any rain.

High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to range from the 50s in northern Minnesota with 60s in northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Low clouds and fog becoming more widespread later this evening and through the overnight.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Low clouds and fog possibly giving way to some partial sunshine in the afternoon.  Breezy.  High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Note:  Rain gradually develops Tuesday night but probably not until after 9 PM (Timing could change) Rain ends Wednesday morning with some afternoon sun expected.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  57
Low:   39

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:12 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:41 PM CDT

Tim