Friday, October 28, 2016

Record/near record warmth today in southern Minnesota. Clouds stick around this weekend; Halloween rain chance (Thunder?)

/Issued 4:14 PM CDT, Friday, October 28, 2016/












This was the setup for today, October 28, 2016 per 12z European model.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Low pressure moving east out of the Dakotas with unseasonably warm temperatures/SW winds occurring ahead of that low across western and southern Minnesota and for areas farther south.
















3 PM, October 28, 2016 - The dots on the image below shows where record high temperatures were broken, tied or within 3 degrees of tying late this afternoon.  Source:  http://coolwx.com/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/





















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A very warm late October day in parts of Minnesota as high temperatures climbed into the mid 60s and low/mid 70s in much of western, central and southern Minnesota while late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from +18 to +20 degrees Celsius which is impressive for October 28th.

The Northland never got into that type of warmth today thanks to lingering widespread low clouds along with patchy fog, haze and drizzle -- Highs in our area were generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s with the warmest temperatures found west and south of Highway 2, these temperatures  although cooler than what occurred farther south are still above average though for late October.

An area of low pressure averaging 1004mb was over northwest Minnesota/southeast Manitoba Province at 3 PM today with a warm front and cold front to the west and south of our area.  There has been some showers today in far northern Minnesota with around 0.25" of rain reported at both Grand Marais and Grand Portage in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 28)

Generally mostly cloudy sky conditions will carry over into tonight although there is a chance for some breaks in the clouds from time to time.  Low pressure along with its warm front and cold front will move quickly toward the east out of western Minnesota with this system exiting the Northland to the N/E by late this evening.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s with 30s possible in far northern Minnesota.  It'll be breezy tonight as winds turn to the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Saturday (October 29)

High pressure builds south/east out of the northern Plains but a disturbance moving east out of the northern Plains could bring some rain showers to southern portions of the area during the afternoon/evening hours, and there could also be a few showers or some drizzle that develops later in the afternoon near Lake Superior -- Mostly cloudy skies will continue on Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Mostly cloudy for Saturday night but there could be some pockets of clearing that develop during the night.  Lows will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds on Saturday will be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Sunday (October 30)

Dry on Sunday with highs in the 40s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  The next low pressure system that will affect us moves into the western High Plains Sunday night -- Scattered rain showers could develop and pass through parts of the Northland late Sunday night thanks to a warm advection pattern.

Monday (October 31)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast out of the western Dakotas on Halloween.  Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday as this system moves through.  Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 48.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle possible later in the day.  High 48 to 52.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  45
Low:   30

Sunrise Saturday:  7:47 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   5:57 PM CDT

Tim