Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Rain Thursday night could mix with or change to snow for a few hours Fri AM west-north of Duluth

/Issued 4:54 PM CDT, Thursday, October 5, 2016/

I don't think will land in the top 3 for coldest high temperatures at Duluth or International Falls on Friday, October 7 but it will be cool and blustery, a real taste of fall weather!

Here are the top 3 coldest high temperatures on record for October 7th.

Note:  Records at Duluth date back to 1874 and at International Falls 1897.

Duluth, MN:  36 F in 1915; 38 F in 2000; 39 F in 1925.

International Falls:  36 F in 2000; 39 F in 1987; 40 F in 1985.
















Look at those temperatures from this afternoon in the northern Rockies and northern Plains - Brr! Still milder than normal across much of the Northland today but the colder temperatures to our west will be here on Friday.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
















Here's what were looking at for the next few days.

Powerful Hurricane Matthew is forecast to hit portions of the southeast U.S. from Florida to South Carolina and North Carolina.

Here in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will have another round of rain Thursday PM-Friday AM as low pressure moves quickly northeast out of the central Plains - Enough cold air could get drawn into the back side of this system Friday morning allowing the rain to mix with or change to snow for a brief period of time (Blue shaded area on map)















Thursday's severe weather outlook.  Source, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/dlh.php#tabs




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/dlh.php#tabs




















Rainfall reports for October 5, 2016
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu/

Isabella, MN:  0.48"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.45"
Brainerd, MN:  0.45"
Aitkin, MN:  0.44"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.42"

Phillips, WI:  0.32"
Glidden, WI:  0.31"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.30"
Hayward, WI:  0.30"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.26"

McGregor, MN:  0.25"
Siren, WI:  0.25"
International Falls, MN:  0.24"
Washburn, WI:  0.22"
Ashland, WI:  0.22"

Minong, WI:  0.21"
Pine River, MN:  0.21"
Hinckley, MN:  0.20"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.18"
Walker, MN:  0.17"

Grand Rapids, MN:  0.16"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.16"
Ely, MN:  0.15"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.15"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.15"

Superior, WI:  0.14"
Cloquet, MN:  0.12"
Bigfork, MN:  0.12"
Cook, MN:  0.03"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 5, 2016

It feels nice when a forecast verifies.  Cold front moved through earlier in the day with rain, but as predicted 24 hours ago, skies cleared late this morning over most of the Northland with generally sunny skies late this afternoon in eastern and northeast Minnesota and in all of northwest Wisconsin while some clouds pass through the far west-northwest portions of the area.  High temperatures today were in the low to mid 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with 50s across northern Minnesota down to Longville and Pine River.

Surface map late this afternoon had low pressure of 996mb over western Manitoba Province with a cold front stretching from western Ontario Province to central Lake Superior to east central Wisconsin.  Seeing a rather strong thermal gradient today with afternoon temperatures in the 30s parts of North Dakota and Montana with 70s in Nebraska.  850mb temperatures ranged from -4 degrees Celsius in far northern Montana to -2 degrees Celsius in west central North Dakota to 0 degrees Celsius in northwest Minnesota to +6 to +10 degrees Celsius over the south half of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 5)

A windy and cooler night ahead under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s with 30s in western-northwest areas while a few spots in northwest Wisconsin remain at around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  A secondary cold front will move through the Northland tonight but this front won't produce any precipitation.

Thursday (October 6)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 50s in northern Minnesota with low to mid 60s in northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  The cold front that'll pass through the area tonight will stall out and turn into a warm front tomorrow - This front is expected to stretch from southern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, meanwhile low pressure will move into the central Plains and will lift rapidly northeast to central Lake Superior by Friday morning.

Rain is expected to develop late Thursday afternoon or more likely Thursday evening across east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin...This rain area will then lift into northeast Minnesota Thursday night.

Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the 30s and 40s with north or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Friday (October 7)

A much cooler airmass arrives on Friday with daytime highs generally in the 40s while 850mb temperatures fall to between 0 and -4 degrees Celsius.  West or northwest winds gusting to around 20-25 mph will certainly make it feel like fall around here.

Low pressure will exit to our northeast on Friday while an upper level trough approaches from the northwest during the day.

Rain or snow is possible in parts of the Northland Friday morning with scattered showers possible mainly across northern Minnesota Friday afternoon/night...A few of these showers could be in the form of snow especially Friday night.

Note:  Friday morning roughly from 4 AM to 10 AM could see the rain turn to snow in portions of northeast Minnesota.  Temperatures aloft support this change over as do the lowering thickness values, but surface temperatures might not drop enough for snow...Model data shows the 2m wet bulb temperatures at around 33-35 degrees Friday morning over parts of northeast Minnesota so the surface temperature will likely be in that general range.  If the precipitation rates are heavy enough I think the rain will change to a brief period of snow.  This is most likely to happen west and northwest of Duluth and also for areas inland from Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota.  Probably won't be dealing with any snow accumulation the way it looks now, but if a heavier burst of snow were to occur, then it's not out of the question that a coating of slush could coat the lawns for a brief time Friday morning west and northwest of Duluth.

Looking at partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies on Friday with partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday night with lows mainly in the 30s.

Note:  The coldest low temperature so far this fall at the Duluth Airport has been 40 degrees on September 14th - I think there is a pretty good chance that temperatures will drop lower than 40 degrees the next few nights after tonight.

Saturday (October 8)

There is a risk for a few rain showers on Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s.  Note:  A few snow flurries are also possible especially Saturday morning across northern Minnesota.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Generally clear.  Low 41 to 46.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness later in the day.  High 57 to 62.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night...  Rain developing between 5-8 PM with rain then continuing through the night.  Low 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  56
Low:   38

Sunrise Thursday:  7:15 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:37 PM CDT

Tim