Thursday, October 13, 2016

Powerful storms to hit the Pacific northwest tonight and Saturday. Gusty SW winds with highs near 60 in the Twin Ports on Friday; Risk for showers/isolated t-storms Saturday and again Sunday night

/Issued 5:07 PM CDT, Thursday, October 13, 2016/

Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















Source, http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 13, 2016

Well it didn't get as cold as I thought it would early this morning, you can thank the clouds for that, and because of this no frost below the hill in Duluth this morning, so the wait continues for that first fall frost closer to Lake Superior.

A real nice fall afternoon in the Northland under mostly sunny to partly sunny skies.  Highs ranged from 50 to around 55 degrees with mid and upper 40s in far northern Minnesota and also over the Arrowhead.  Winds today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 13)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  Southwest low level jet and a warm air advection pattern has already kicked in this afternoon and this will continue through the night.  Late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from zero to -4 degrees Celsius but will rise to between +3 and +9 degrees Celsius by daybreak.

Friday (October 14)

Breezy south/southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Warm air advection pattern continues tomorrow with 850mb temperatures climbing even further to between +8 and +14 degrees Celsius thanks to a very strong SW low level jet of 40-50 knots.

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with cooler temperatures over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy are expected on Friday - A few showers could develop tomorrow night as a cold front approaches from the west.  Lows Friday night will mainly be in the 50s with 40s over the Arrowhead.

.Extended Forecast...

Saturday (October 15)

Moisture increases on Saturday as a cold front moves through the Northland - Dew points are expected to climb into the low 50s, possibly into the mid 50s in northwest Wisconsin while PWATS increase to 1.00-1.30".

Scattered rain showers could develop over the area on Saturday as the cold front passes through.  Instability will come up a bit during the afternoon/evening hours with CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg.  Note:  Could see a few thunderstorms Saturday PM especially in northwest Wisconsin with a lower chance in eastern Minnesota.

Mostly cloudy skies on Saturday although some clearing could occur in the afternoon in western portions of the area.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  If skies clear soon enough then a few locations around the Brainerd Lakes area could approach 70 degrees.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies Saturday night with lows in the 40s.

Sunday (October 16)

Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as a new low pressure system moves into the Upper Midwest.  Note:  Looks like most of the showers on Sunday could end up being over northern Minnesota, then Sunday night as instability increases the risk for showers or thunderstorms will cover the entire Northland.

The next chance for rain looks to be from October 17-19 as a third system tracks through the Upper Midwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 56 to 61.  Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  53
Low:   36

Sunrise Friday:  7:26 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:22 PM CDT

Tim