Thursday, October 27, 2016

Past November snowfall totals (1950-2015) for Duluth included in this post. Gray skies but mild on Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s (70s in southern Minnesota)

/Issued 4:52 PM CDT, Thursday, October 27, 2016/

Not a lot of precipitation in Duluth despite an active weather pattern that will be in place into early next week.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/





















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















1950-2015 November snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Note:  Average November snowfall total is 13.7" ; Above average years in bold.

1950:  10.6"
1951:    2.7"
1952:    7.3"
1953:    4.4"
1954:    7.4"
1955:  22.4"
1956:  17.0"
1957:  12.6"
1958:    3.6"
1959:    7.4"

1960:  14.8"
1961:    2.8"
1962:    1.8"
1963:    1.6"
1964:    8.6"
1965:  25.9"
1966:    7.6"
1967:    4.2"
1968:  21.8"
1969:    9.1"

1970:  16.8"
1971:    6.4"
1972:    6.7"
1973:    7.6"
1974:    4.5"
1975:  25.7"
1976:    2.7"
1977:  16.0"
1978:  10.1"
1979:    6.0"

1980:    1.6"
1981:  12.5"
1982:  16.0"
1983:  37.7"
1984:    2.4"
1985:  34.1"
1986:    8.2"
1987:    5.8"
1988:  24.3"
1989:    8.4"

1990:    5.1"
1991:  50.1"
1992:  29.4"
1993:  28.5"
1994:  15.5"
1995:  20.4"
1996:  15.9"
1997:  16.9"
1998:  15.7"
1999:    6.2"

2000:  17.5"
2001:  11.4"
2002:    4.3"
2003:  19.4"
2004:    1.4"
2005:  11.4"
2006:    4.0"
2007:    6.0"
2008:    3.2"

2009:    1.1"
2010:  27.9"
2011:    3.7"
2012:  10.1"
2013:    4.7"
2014:  16.4"
2015:    4.4"

Since 1950:

*24 Novembers have had above average snowfall.

*The 90s Novembers produced some epic snowfall totals with 8 of them having above average snowfall.

Note:  An early look at this upcoming November shows that it shouldn't be very snowy in Duluth, in fact snow totals look quite similar to last November which had just 4.4" of snow.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A mild day across the Northland with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees which is roughly 5 degrees above average for October 27th, not abnormally warm but still a little bit above average for this time of year.  Mostly cloudy skies continued today but there have been some holes in the clouds which allowed for a little bit of sun from time to time.  Winds today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 27)

An impressive shot of warm air advection occurs tonight as 850mb temperatures early this evening range from 0 to +8 degrees Celsius from NE-SW in our area but by daybreak H85 temperatures climb to between +10 and +18 degrees Celsius.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue tonight and there could be some patchy drizzle or fog but this doesn't look very widespread.  Low temperatures mainly in the 40s with 30s possible in a few locations.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday (October 28)

A mild day but it would be even warmer if not for the lingering cloud cover.  An area of low pressure will move east across far northern North Dakota Friday, passing across far northern Lake Superior late Friday night -- A warm front and cold front connected to this low will sweep through the Northland on Friday.  Most of the area should remain dry tomorrow but a few rain showers are possible mostly over far northern Minnesota and in the Arrowhead.

Highs on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Friday night in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

It'll be breezy on Friday with S/SW winds turning W/NW Friday night; Wind speeds ranging from 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

.Extended Forecast...

Saturday (October 29)

Low pressure moves into eastern Canada while high pressure builds south/east into the northern Plains.  Could be some rain showers in parts of the Northland on Saturday - At the moment these showers look most likely over southern areas and also over the Arrowhead.

Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday night in the 30s.

Sunday (October 30)

Dry as high pressure will be in control of our weather.  Highs will be in the 40s.

Note:  Low pressure is still forecast to lift northeast out of the western High Plains on Halloween (31st)  Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible on Monday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as this system moves through.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 55 to 60.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  46
Low:   31

Sunrise Friday:  7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   5:58 PM CDT

Tim