Monday, October 31, 2016

Outlook for November - Warmer than average, below average snowfall in Duluth

/Issued October 31, 2016/

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

CFSv2 model Temperature Anomaly Forecast for November 2016.

Orange/red colors=Above average temperatures














CFSv2 model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast for November 2016.

Green/Blue areas=Above average
Yellow areas=Below average
White areas=Near normal














November climate averages at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Base period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  28.8 degrees
Snowfall:  13.7"
Precipitation:  2.09"

Warmest November on record:  40.6 degrees in 1899
Coldest November on record:  18.8 degrees in 1959

Wettest November on record:  5.08" in 2000
Driest November on record:  0.09" in 1917

Snowiest November on record:  50.1" in 1991
Least snowiest November on record:  Trace in 1928

Number of days with snow (Accumulation 0.1" or greater)  9
Number of days with snow (Accumulation 1.0" or greater)  4

Astronomical data for November

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:53 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  4:23 PM CST

Note:  Daylight Saving Time ends on November 6th.

November 2015 climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  36.7 degrees
Departure:  +7.3 degrees above normal

Note:  November 2015 was the 4th warmest on record dating back to 1874.

Total precipitation:  2.75"
Departure:  +0.66" above normal

Total snowfall:  4.4"
Departure:  -9.3" below normal

Number of days with snow (Accumulation of 0.1" or greater)  6
Number of days with snow (Accumulation of 1.0" or greater)  1

Top 5 warmest Novembers on record at Duluth, Minnesota
Note:  Dating back to 1874

1)  40.6 degrees in 1899
2)  39.5 degrees in 2001
3)  37.9 degrees in 2009
4)  36.7 degrees in 2015
5)  36.1 degrees in 1999 and 1931

*3 out of the top 5 warmest Novembers in history have occurred since 2000.

November climate stats 2000-2015

Average temperature/departure from average

2000:  28.6 degrees (-0.2 degrees below average)
2001:  39.5 degrees (+10.7 degrees above average)
2002:  25.6 degrees (-3.2 degrees below average)
2003:  26.6 degrees (-2.2 degrees below average)
2004:  33.4 degrees (+4.6 degrees above average)
2005:  30.7 degrees (+1.9 degrees above average)
2006:  31.8 degrees (+3.0 degrees above average)
2007:  28.9 degrees (+0.1 degree above average)
2008:  28.9 degrees (+0.1 degree above average)
2009:  37.1 degrees (+9.1 degrees above average)
2010:  30.5 degrees (+1.7 degrees above average)
2011:  33.1 degrees (+4.3 degrees above average)
2012:  30.9 degrees (+2.1 degrees above average)
2013:  27.9 degrees (-0.9 degrees below average)
2014:  21.8 degrees (-7.0 degrees below average)
2015:  36.7 degrees (+7.9 degrees above average)

Since 2000:  5 Novembers have had below average temperatures.

Total snowfall/departure from average

2000:  17.5" (+3.8" above normal)
2001:  11.4" (-2.3" below normal)
2002:    4.3" (-9.4" below normal)
2003:  19.4" (+5.7" above normal)
2004:    1.4" (-12.3" below normal)
2005:  11.4" (-2.3" below normal)
2006:    4.0" (-9.7" below normal)
2007:    6.0" (-7.7" below normal)
2008:    3.2" (-10.5" below normal)
2009:    1.1" (-12.6" below normal)
2010:  27.9" (+14.2" above normal)
2011:     3.7" (-10.0" below normal)
2012:  10.1" (-3.6" below normal)
2013:    4.7" (-9.0" below normal)
2014:  16.4" (+2.7" above normal)
2015:    4.4" (-9.3" below normal)

Since 2000:  4 Novembers have had above average snowfall.

What can we expect this November?

Looks warmer and drier than average at Duluth.

Temperature:  Around +4.5 degrees above average
Total snowfall:  Around 3-4" (~10" below average)

Summary:  There is a high amount of certainty that the first week of November will be warmer than average, it does look like the pattern will slowly change toward mid November with late November probably being the coldest portion of the month.  It's unlikely though given the warm start to the month that even with potential colder temperatures for mid-late month that it would result in a below average November but will see.

Snowfall:  Doesn't look very snowy in November but I do think will have a few minor snow events especially from mid to late month, actually the forecast snowfall totals this November look quite similar to what we got last November.

Tim