Monday, October 17, 2016

Lingering drizzle, rain showers and some fog tonight; Turning sunnier Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain potential in parts of NW Wisconsin tonight

/Issued 4:48 PM CDT, Monday, October 17, 2016/

Source, http://www.lightningmaps.org/
















Source, http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















24-hour rainfall map for October 16-17, ending the morning of the 17th.  Source, http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Note:  I highlighted the areas that had the heavier rainfall totals last night (0.50"+)
















Widespread warmth on this 17th day of October.  Source, http://coolwx.com/


















Tonight's storm and temperatures from late this afternoon.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Rainfall reports from late Sunday night-Monday morning (October 16-17, 2016)

Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu/http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hayward, WI:  1.58"
Clam Lake, WI:  0.97"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.86"
Clam Lake, WI 4W:  0.82"
Minong, WI:  0.73"

Siren, WI:  0.71"
Ashland, WI 3S:  0.70"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.70"
Ashland, WI:  0.67"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.64"

Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.64"
Duluth, MN (NWS)  0.61"
Ely, MN 25E:  0.60"
Floodwood, MN:  0.54"
Embarrass, MN:  0.52"

Superior, WI:  0.52"
Babbitt, MN:  0.50"
Hibbing, MN:  0.48"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.45"
Wright, MN 3E:  0.42"

Cloquet, MN:  0.41"
Barnes, WI:  0.39"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.36"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.34"
Hinckley, MN:  0.34"

Island Lake, MN 4E:  0.32"
Isabella, MN:  0.30"
Pine River, MN:  0.30"
Orr, MN 3E:  0.29"
Gunflint Lake, MN 10W:  0.28"

Moose Lake, MN:  0.28"
International Falls, MN:  0.26"
Grand Rapids, MN 12N:  0.25"
McGregor, MN:  0.24"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.12"
Isle, MN 12N:  0.11"
Brainerd, MN:  0.08"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 17, 2016

Low pressure of 992mb was over western Iowa at 3 PM today with a warm front extending from southeast Minnesota to central Wisconsin.  It's unusually humid and warm south of that warm front today with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin while dew points were in the 60s to around 70 degrees (Very muggy for mid October) The Northland had cooler temperatures today since were north of this system - Highs in our area were generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees which is still above normal for the 17th of October.  Note:  Near 70 degree temperatures occurred today as far north as Price County Wisconsin (Park Falls, Phillips areas)

Skies were generally mostly cloudy across the area today with some breaks in the clouds from time to time in northern Minnesota.  Areas of fog and drizzle have lingered most of the day around Lake Superior.  There has also been some rain showers at times in east central Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 17)

Low pressure will strengthen tonight as it moves/develops quickly northeast out of western Iowa to eastern Lake Superior by late tonight, and then the center of the low should be to the northeast of Lake Superior by daybreak - The central pressure with this low is forecast to drop from 992mb late this afternoon to between 978-982mb by 7 AM Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur tonight in parts of northwest Wisconsin and in eastern Minnesota.  A few of the storms could be strong and also produce heavy rainfall especially around the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, Phillips and Hurley areas in the southeast portion of northwest Wisconsin.

Showers will also occur tonight across northeast Minnesota but there shouldn't be any thunder.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with southwest, north or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday (October 18)

Deep low pressure will head into eastern Canada on Tuesday while a cold front moves slowly S/SE out of northwest Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tuesday with a chance for a few showers during the afternoon/evening hours mainly over western portions of the area.  Highs will be in the 50s with near 60 degree highs possible over southern areas.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s with 30s across far northern Minnesota.  Winds on Tuesday will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (October 19-20)

Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but certainly nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.  Wednesday's highs are expected to range from the 40s in northern Minnesota with 50s and lower 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 30s, possibly a few 20s in the typical cold spots.  Highs Thursday mainly in the 40s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional rain showers.  Drizzle and fog.  Overcast.  Low 46 to 49.  Wind variable becoming west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy but clearing skies during the afternoon.  High 55 to 60.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  51
Low:   34

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:31 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:15 PM CDT

Tim