Saturday, October 15, 2016

East wind develops Sunday with highs near 60 (Cooler by the lake) Risk for showers/t-storms Sunday night a few storms could be on the strong side

/Issued 6:08 PM CDT, Saturday, October 15, 2016/

Visible satellite image and dew points from late this afternoon.  Source, http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/

Skies are clearing late this afternoon in the Twin Ports as a cold front exits to the east.




















Source, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














Lake Superior water temperature has been cooling off which is typical now that were well into fall, but right now the average water temperature of Lake Superior is still running quite a bit above average compared to where it should be in mid October.  Note:  Mid 50s now; Average at this time of year mid/upper 40s.  Source, https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov

Red line=Current water temperature
Blue line=Average water temperature (1992-2015)
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 15, 2016

Unseasonably mild temperatures for mid October.  Highs today were in the 60s with a few southern locations close to 70 degrees.  Dew points were in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with drier 30s across northern Minnesota.

A cold front is on the move today and as of late afternoon this boundary extends from northeast Minnesota to southern Minnesota to eastern Nebraska.  There has been a few light rain showers and patchy drizzle in parts of the area today otherwise mostly cloudy skies has given way to decreasing cloudiness this afternoon in western-northern areas.  Winds today were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph - Certainly not as windy today compared to Friday.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 15)

Cold front number one moves east of the Northland before midnight while a secondary cold front moves south out of Ontario Province and into northern Minnesota.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight.  A few showers possible this evening in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures in the 30s and 40s with winds out of the west, southwest or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday (October 16)

Cold front which moves through the area this evening will extend from western South Dakota to central Iowa Sunday morning - This front will turn into a warm front and will lift N/NE into Minnesota Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Scattered showers are possible tomorrow afternoon in northern Minnesota; Then will likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop tomorrow evening through the overnight hours as elevated instability increases with CAPE of 300-900 j/kg along with steep mid level lapse rates.  A strong low level jet is also expected to develop near this warm front Sunday night which will help advect deeper moisture and instability into our area.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s with 50s around Lake Superior and over extreme northern Minnesota.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds on Sunday will shift to the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Monday and Tuesday (October 17-18)

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop and pass through the Upper Midwest on Monday and will exit off to the east/northeast by Tuesday.  Occasional rain is possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Monday into early Tuesday morning.  A few thunderstorms could also develop on Monday in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday night in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Highs on Tuesday in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Cooler but still above average temperatures for mid October.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 56 to 61.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.  Low 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  52
Low:   35

Sunrise Sunday:  7:28 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:19 PM CDT

Tim