Sunday, October 2, 2016

Areas of low clouds/fog possible late tonight; Rain Tue PM-Wed. Severe weather possible Mon-Tue over the northern and central Plains

/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Sunday, October 2, 2016/

Excessive rainfall outlook valid 7 AM Tue thru 7 AM Wed.  Source, http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw















Tuesday's severe weather outlook.  Source, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php




















Temperature departure map for the week of September 25.  Source, http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

Almost the entire Northland had above average temperatures last week.
















Precipitation departure map for the week of September 25.  Source, http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

Above normal precipitation totals last week in parts of northern Minnesota and in far northeast portions of northwest Wisconsin (Darker green, blue and purple areas on map)

















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

September 25-October 1, 2016

High temperatures:

9/25:  69 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/26:  54 F/-7 degrees below normal
9/27:  51 F/-9 degrees below normal
9/28:  59 F/-1 degree below normal
9/29:  62 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/30:  59 F/Normal
10/1:  67 F/+9 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

9/25:  50 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/26:  48 F/+6 degrees above normal
9/27:  47 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/28:  49 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/29:  50 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/30:  50 F/+10 degrees above normal
10/1:  49 F/+9 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.95"
Normal:  0.87"
Departure:  +0.08" above normal

Top 10 warmest Septembers on record at Duluth, MN
Base period:  1870-2016

1)  62.6 degrees in 1897
2)  62.1 degrees in 2009
3)  61.6 degrees in 1891
4)  61.5 degrees in 2015 and 1931
5)  61.0 degrees in 1906
6)  60.4 degrees in 1908
7)  60.3 degrees in 1920
8)  60.2 degrees in 1948
9)  60.1 degrees in 1933
10)  60.0 degrees in 1940

Note:  September 2016 tied with September 2013 for 11th warmest on record with an average temperature of 59.9 degrees.

September 2016 climate summaries for select cities
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  59.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.52"
Departure:  -0.59" below normal

**6 thunderstorm days**

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  57.1 degrees
Departure:  +3.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.33"
Departure:  +0.34" above normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  66.1 degrees
Departure:  +4.1 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  5.47"
Departure:  +2.39" above normal

**11 thunderstorm days**

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  61.7 degrees
Departure:  +3.1 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.08"
Departure:  -0.38" below normal

**7 thunderstorm days**

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:

Average temperature:  63.4 degrees
Departure:  +3.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  8.20"
Departure:  +4.52" above normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

Marquette, Michigan:

Average temperature:  59.3 degrees
Departure:  +3.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  5.70"
Departure:  +1.98" above normal

**1 thunderstorm day**

Wettest September on record at the following locations in Minnesota
Source:  http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/

Waseca:  14.80"
Spring Grove:  13.89"
Caledonia:  13.13"
Lanesboro:  12.75"
Chatfield:  12.55"
Hokah:  11.54"
Spring Valley:  10.44"
La Crescent:  10.33"
Albert Lea:  10.31"

Note:  September 2016 in Minnesota will be among the 15% warmest in history dating back to 1895.  *September 2015 was the warmest in state history while September 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2013 were among the top 10 warmest Septembers in history.

Note:  September 2016 in Minnesota was the 10th wettest September in history dating back to 1895.  Well over 100 daily rainfall records were reported last month in the Minnesota observation network.

***Top ten wettest water years on record***

Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Note:  The water year runs from October 1 - September 30, and the totals listed below are thru September 29th.

Gurney, Wisconsin:

*2015-16 Total precipitation:  58.04" (Rank:  1st)
Previous record:  44.56" in 1954-1955

Brainerd, Minnesota:

*2015-16 Total precipitation:  41.64" (Rank:  1st)
Previous record:  40.22" in 1971-1972

Park Falls, Wisconsin:

*2015-16 Total precipitation:  40.31" (Rank:  4th wettest)
Wettest:  47.75" in 2009-2010

International Falls, Minnesota:

*2015-16 Total precipitation:  31.17" (Rank:  9th wettest)
Wettest:  36.83" in 1940-1941

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 2, 2016

All in all a pretty nice early October weekend across the Northland with today being the nicer of the two days especially if you live closer to Lake Superior.  Skies were generally sunny or mostly sunny over the area this afternoon with above average temperatures in the lower 70s with 60s around Lake Superior - These temperatures are 10-15 degrees warmer than average for October 2nd.  Surface map late this afternoon showed low pressure east of Lake Huron with a ridge of high pressure covering the western Great Lakes north into Ontario Province.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 2)

An upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies but expect areas of low clouds and fog to redevelop later tonight.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with 30s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the south or east at around 10 mph.

Monday (October 3)

Areas of low clouds and fog during the morning should burn off giving way to mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies in the afternoon, but near Lake Superior it might take a while longer for the low clouds/fog to go away.

Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday and Wednesday (October 4-5)

Low pressure is forecast to extended from the northern Rockies to central Plains on Tuesday, this system is expected to track northeast while a cold front moves through the Northland from late Tuesday night into Wednesday -- A very strong S-SE low level jet of 50-60+ knots is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening with an increase in moisture thanks to the strong southerly low level jet.  PWATS are forecast to climb to between 1.25-1.50" over the Northland Tuesday night, and once the cold front/lift moves closer to the area we should see rain develop and expand across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday night.

Rain could linger into Wednesday morning in parts of the Northland but drier conditions should return by the afternoon as the cold front moves east of our area.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday night in the 50s with highs on Wednesday in the 50s and 60s.

Note:  There is another chance for rain later in the week (October 6-7) but there is uncertainty regarding the track of an area of low pressure which could come out of the central Plains later this week.

Note:  It does turn cooler late this week but will it be cold enough for the first freeze of the season at Duluth?  Not sure yet.  The average date for the first freeze at the Duluth Airport is September 30th so were already past the average first freeze date (32 degree or colder low temperature)  The period to keep an eye on for a possible freeze would be October 7-8, if it doesn't happen at that time, then we could be waiting a while longer.  By the way International Falls has also not recorded a freezing temperature yet this fall - The average date for the first fall freeze at International Falls is September 14th.

Last year's first fall freeze date:  At Duluth October 7th (31 degrees)  At International Falls September 28th (28 degrees)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear but areas of low clouds or fog possible late.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 5 to 10 mph.

.Monday...  Low clouds or fog possible in the morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  High 61 to 66.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  57
Low:  39

Sunrise Monday:  7:11 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:43 PM CDT

Tim