Sunday, October 9, 2016

60s to around 70 degrees on Monday with gusty S-SW winds; Rain chances Tue-Wed AM followed by cooler temperatures for Wed-Thur

/Issued 6:29 PM CDT, Sunday, October 9, 2016/

Monday's weather setup and the water vapor satellite image from early Sunday evening.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Snow returns to the northern Rockies with several inches of accumulation expected over parts of Montana on Monday while in the Upper Midwest it'll be windy and mild with a gusty S-SW wind while high temperatures reach the 60s to lower 70s with mid 70s possible especially over western-southwest portions of Minnesota.
















Temperature departure map for the week of October 2nd.  Source, http://www.sercc.com/climate

Although last week ended on a much cooler note - Temperatures for the whole week were still above average thanks to the mild start to last week.
















Precipitation departure map for the week of October 2nd.  Source, http://www.sercc.com/climate

Green shaded areas indicate near to above average precipitation totals while the yellow and orange areas represent below average precipitation totals.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/uppermissvly.php




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 2-8, 2016

High temperatures:

10/2:  68 F/+10 degrees above normal
10/3:  66 F/+9 degrees above normal
10/4:  69 F/+12 degrees above normal
10/5:  63 F/+6 degrees above normal
10/6:  59 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/7:  44 F/-12 degrees below normal
10/8:  50 F/-5 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

10/2:  44 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/3:  44 F/+5 degrees above normal
10/4:  52 F/+13 degrees above normal
10/5:  51 F/+12 degrees above normal
10/6:  41 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/7:  35 F/-3 degrees below normal
10/8:  34 F/-3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.66"
Normal:  0.77"
Departure:  -0.11" below normal

Note:  First freeze of the fall season this morning at Duluth, International Falls and Superior.

Low temperatures:

Duluth, MN:  30 F October 9 (Avg date for the 1st fall freeze September 30)

Superior, WI:  31 F October 9 (Avg date for the 1st fall freeze September 29)

International Falls, MN:  30 F October 9 (Avg date for the 1st fall freeze September 14)

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  October 9, 2016

A real nice fall day across the Northland under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.  Warm air advection pattern has kicked in this afternoon as high pressure moved off to the east.  Highs today were mainly in the 50s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  5 PM 850mb temperatures ranged from +2 to +10 degrees Celsius from northeast-southwest.  Winds today were out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (October 9)

Clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the 40s with 30s possible in far northeast Minnesota.  South or southeast winds tonight at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday (October 10)

A warm front swings through the Northland tonight with low pressure and cold front centered to our west on Monday - A mild southwest wind will be in place across the area tomorrow resulting in daytime highs in the 60s to lower 70s but in the 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow with winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy tomorrow with a chance for showers mainly over western portions of the area.  Low temperatures mainly in the 50s with southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Tuesday (October 11)

A cold front will move through the Northland on Tuesday.  Rain showers are possible as this front moves through.  Highs on Tuesday will range from the 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with 50s in northern Minnesota.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Wednesday (October 12)

Showers could linger in parts of the area Wednesday morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with cooler temperatures with highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees with lows in the 20s and 30s.

Note:  Cool temperatures continue on Thursday but after that it looks like milder temperatures return to the Upper Midwest between October 14-18.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Not as cold as previous nights.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Windy but milder.  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind south to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  54
Low:   37

Sunrise Monday:  7:20 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:30 PM CDT

Tim