Friday, September 30, 2016

September was warmer and drier than normal at Duluth, MN (Could end up in the top 10 warmest on record) What will October bring? A look back at the top 10 snowiest Octobers on record at Duluth. Above avg temps thru Oct 5

/Issued 4:25 PM CDT, Friday, September 30, 2016/

Note:  Preliminary climate stats for September at Duluth, MN:

Average temperature around +4.0 degrees warmer than normal
Total precipitation -0.59" below normal

Through September 29 - The average temperature was 60.1 degrees which ties with 1933 for 9th warmest September on record.

CFSv2 temperature anomaly forecast for October 2016.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Orange and red colors=Above average temperatures
Blue colors=Below average temperatures
White areas=Near normal temperatures














CFSv2 precipitation anomaly forecast for October 2016.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Green areas=Above average precipitation
Yellow areas=Below average precipitation
White areas=Near normal precipitation














October climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Base period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  43.2 degrees
Precipitation:  2.85"
Snowfall:  2.3"

Normal high temperature on the 1st:  58 degrees
Normal high temperature on the 31st:  44 degrees

Normal low temperature on the 1st:  40 degrees
Normal low temperature on the 31st:  30 degrees

Warmest October on record:  55.9 degrees in 1963
Coldest October on record:  33.5 degrees in 1917

Wettest October on record:  7.53" in 1949
Driest October on record:  0.09" in 1895

Snowiest October on record:  14.0" in 1933

Average number of days in Oct with a high temperature at or above 70 F:  2
Most 70 degree days on record in Oct:  5 days in 2003 and in 1989

Average number of days with 0.1" or greater snow accumulation:  2
Average number of days with 1.0" or greater snow accumulation:  1

Astronomical data for October:

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:49 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  6:47 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  5:55 PM CDT

Here's a look at the top 10 snowiest Octobers on record at Duluth, Minnesota

1)  14.0" in 1933
2)  11.5" in 1925
3)    9.7" in 1995
4)    8.1" in 1966
5)    7.7" in 2010
6)    7.0" in 1936 and 1926
7)    6.5" in 1955
8)    6.3" in 2002
9)    5.8" in 1951 and 1919
10)  5.1" in 1992

Note:  October 2015 was warmer and drier than normal at Duluth, Minnesota.  Average temperature was 46.3 degrees (+3.1 degrees above average)  1.90" of precipitation which was (-0.95" below normal)  1 thunderstorm day and there was a trace of snowfall last October.

Late afternoon water vapor satellite image.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.




















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 30, 2016

Low clouds have lingered through the day for locations closer to Lake Superior; Elsewhere morning low clouds eroded from east-west giving way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon.  Highs today ranged from the 50s near Lake Superior with 60s elsewhere, a few locations including Aitkin, McGregor and Phillips were even close to 70 degrees on this final day of September.  Winds today were out of the north or east at around 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 30)

Near Lake Superior expect skies to remain overcast tonight although there could be a brief period of partial clearing that occurs this evening.  The remainder of the Northland will start with mostly clear skies but will turn mostly cloudy later in the night as low clouds redevelop.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the east at around 10 mph.

Saturday (October 1)

Morning low clouds will likely burn off giving way to mostly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon but near Lake Superior the low clouds might stick around most of the day thanks to a moist onshow flow off Lake Superior.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with near 60 degree temperatures closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Will have east winds on Saturday at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:  Low pressure which was north of Lake Superior early in the week moved into Kentucky on Thursday and remains in that general area this afternoon -- This system will now lift back toward the north through the weekend, likely moving into the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday.  Shouldn't get any more rain in our area as this low moves back over the eastern Great Lakes this weekend but this system will help maintain an easterly low level flow.

.Extended Forecast...

Sunday and Monday (October 2-3)

Looking pretty nice on Sunday and Monday - Dry weather is expected with daytime highs in the 60s to lower 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 40s.

Note:  Still looks like the next best chance for rain in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will occur between next Wednesday-Thursday, October 5-6.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy but some decrease in the clouds is possible as the day wears on.  High 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Dry.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  58
Low:   40

Sunrise Saturday:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:47 PM CDT

Tim