Saturday, September 24, 2016

Rain after midnight in Duluth; Skies clear a bit late Sunday morning-afternoon with highs nearing 70 degrees; Windy and chillier with some rain Sun night-Mon (West wind 30+ mph gusts)

/Issued 6:28 AM CDT, Saturday, September 24, 2016/

Visible satellite image and weather setup from late Saturday afternoon.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Source, Weather Prediction Center.




















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.




















Rainfall reports for September 23-24, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN; CoCoRaHs

Northome, MN:  0.20"
International Falls, MN:  0.08"
Duluth, MN 6.2 NE:  0.06"
Togo, MN:  0.05"
Tofte, MN 4.9 NE:  0.05"
Brainerd, MN:  0.04"
Cook, MN:  0.03"

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 24, 2016

A gray late September day with high temperatures mainly in the 60s.  A little on the humid side considering the time of year with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s today.  Winds were out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts continuing near Lake Superior.  Surface map late this afternoon had low pressure of 1004mb over western North Dakota.  A warm front was over southwest Minnesota with a cold front extending from central North Dakota to eastern South Dakota.  High pressure of 1026mb continues to sit over eastern Ontario Province.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 24)

Rain will move into western-southern sections of the Northland this evening with rain gradually moving into or re-developing over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but likely not until after midnight.

Low pressure will lift northeast out of western North Dakota reaching southern/eastern portions of Manitoba Province by daybreak.  A warm front and cold front connected to this low will move into the Northland by late tonight.  A strong S-SW low level jet of 30-40+ knots will be in place ahead of this system tonight which will pump deep moisture into our area with PWATS ranging from 1.50-2.00".  Not a lot of instability though with elevated CAPE at around 100-300 j/kg which may be enough for isolated thunderstorms but not expecting widespread convection with this system in our area.  Heavy downpours will be possible tonight due to the humid airmass in place.

Mostly cloudy skies for tonight with areas of drizzle and fog possible.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Sunday (September 25)

Rain lingering tomorrow morning in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Mostly cloudy skies will likely give way to some clearing from SW-NE during the mid-late morning and afternoon hours as a dry slot moves over the Northland.

Low pressure moves into western Ontario Province while a strong upper level low/trough moves into the area by Sunday night which will lead to mostly cloudy skies with more chances for rain by late afternoon into Sunday night.

Highs on Sunday will warm into the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday night in the 40s and 50s.

Tomorrow morning winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.  Tomorrow afternoon the wind will shift to the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph but east winds will continue over the Arrowhead of Minnesota until late Sunday afternoon.  Note:  The far northeast corner of Minnesota will likely have some lingering drizzle and fog through most of Sunday.

Winds tomorrow night will shift out of the west or northwest.  Winds will be on the increase Sunday night ranging from 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Monday (September 26)

Windy and cool under mostly cloudy skies.  Light rain and drizzle should continue most of the day in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as a potent upper level low and trough dig into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Highs on Monday in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday night in the 30s and 40s.  Strong northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph on Monday with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Tuesday (September 27)

Low pressure will be over the central-eastern Great Lakes region which will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies over the Northland.  Still a chance for some showers on Tuesday especially over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and drizzle through the night.  Rain developing especially after 2 AM.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional rain in the morning under mostly cloudy skies.  Becoming partly to mostly cloudy from late morning through the afternoon.  Milder.  High 67 to 72.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon.

.Sunday night and Monday...  Windy and cooler.  Occasional light rain.  Highs on Monday around 50.  West winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  61
Low:   42

Sunrise Sunday:  7:00 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:59 PM CDT

Tim