Monday, September 19, 2016

More clouds than sun on the way for Tuesday (Sprinkles/light showers possible) Heavy rain potential in parts of MN and WI Wed; Gusty east wind develops near Lake Superior mid to late week

/Issued 4:11 PM CDT, Monday, September 19, 2016/

Excessive Rainfall outlook valid from 7 AM Wednesday thru 7 AM Thursday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Today's setup.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.




















Rainfall reports for September 18-19, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note:  Totals listed below are thru 7 AM today.

Saxon, WI 1WSW:  0.80"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.37"
Silver Bay, MN 11.5NE:  0.37"
Tofte, MN 4.9NE:  0.30"
Grand Rapids, MN 12N:  0.25"

Grand Marais, MN 4.4W:  0.24"
Embarrass, MN:  0.18"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.13"
Hibbing, MN:  0.11"
Togo, MN:  0.11"

Clam Lake, WI 4W:  0.07"
Hurley, WI:  0.06"
Ely, MN 25E:  0.05"
Cook, MN:  0.04"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.04"
International Falls, MN:  0.03"

*Local Storm Report*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*12:17 AM CDT 9/19:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  1 N of Devils Island, WI (Ashland County)

Weather Tidbits:

*So far this year the Duluth Airport has had 98 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  The 1981-2010 annual average is 86 days.

Top 10 list for most days at or above 70 degrees dating back to 1874.

1) 2012 with 109 days
2) 1955 with 106 days
3) 1987 and 1963 with 105 days

4) 2015 and 2013 with 103 days

5) 2006 with 101 days
6) 1961 with 100 days
7) 1948 with 99 days
8) 1998 and 1988 with 98 days

9) 2007, 2002 and 1995 with 97 days

10) 1976 and 1930 with 96 days

Note: As of now 2016 is tied with 1998 and 1988 (8th place) 98 days.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 19, 2016

A mild day but also a windy one.  High temperatures today were in the upper 60s to middle 70s with a very dry airmass over us with late afternoon dew points running in the upper 30s and 40s over most of the area.  Winds were out of the west or southwest at 15 to 25 mph but gusts of 30-40 mph have been occurring this afternoon.  Mesoanalysis at 3 PM had a very strong upper level jet of around 120 knots over northern Minnesota with mid level winds in the 50-80 knot range, impressive!  Surface map late this afternoon had high pressure of 1016mb over central Nebraska with a cold front which brought scattered thunderstorms to parts of the Northland Sunday evening now stretching from southern Iowa to far eastern Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 19)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.  Should stay breezy most of the night with west winds in the 10-20 mph range with gusts over 30 mph continuing into the evening hours.  Very strong mid and upper level jet will remain over the area tonight but will shift slowly to the north through the night.

Tuesday (September 20)

A cold front moves south through the Northland on Tuesday - FGEN forcing developing near this boundary could lead to a few showers in the afternoon/evening over portions of north central Minnesota but this doesn't look like a very big deal at the moment.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday night in the 40s and 50s.  South or west winds tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph will turn to the north or east tomorrow night.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (September 21-22)

A frontal boundary is expected to setup over northern Iowa or southern Minnesota during the middle part of the week -- Rounds of rain which may be heavy at times are expected near and slightly north of that boundary but it looks like the heaviest rain will remain south of the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday, here in our local area there is a chance for light to possibly moderate rain at times.

High temperatures will mainly be in the 60s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday and Thursday with lows generally in the 50s.

Still looks like will have a gusty east/northeast wind developing near Lake Superior beginning on Wednesday and possibly lasting a few days as strong high pressure parks itself north of Minnesota with low pressure over the Rockies from mid to late week.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy this evening.  Clear.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind west at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts, decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloud cover.  Can't rule out a passing shower or sprinkles during the afternoon.  High 67 to 72.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  63
Low:   44

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:09 PM CDT

Tim