Monday, September 26, 2016

Light rain at times thru Tue with gusty winds and cool temperatures; Waterspout potential over the Great Lakes thru midweek

/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Monday, September 26, 2016/

Visible satellite image from this afternoon and the weather setup thru midweek.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















There is potential for waterspouts over the Great Lakes during the next few days.  The map below is valid thru 7 AM CDT Wednesday, September 28, 2016 showing where waterspouts could develop on a scale of 0-10.  Source, http://www.icwr.ca/experimental-great-lakes-waterspout-forecast.php
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.





















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.





















Rainfall reports during the past 6 hours - Ending at 3 PM today, Sep 26, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

Isabella, MN:  0.25"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.21"
Ely, MN:  0.14"
Ashland, WI:  0.14"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.11"

International Falls, MN:  0.11"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.11"
Littlefork, MN:  0.09"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.05"
Glidden, WI:  0.05"

Clam Lake, WI:  0.05"
Hayward, WI:  0.05"
Orr, MN:  0.04"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.03"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.02"
Cook, MN:  0.02"

Weather Tidbits:

*43 nights this summer with a low temperature of 80 degrees or warmer at New Orleans, Louisiana.  This is a record for most nights with an 80 degree or warmer minimum temperature.  The previous record was just 13 nights which was set in 2010.  Note:  The annual summer average is 2.1 nights.  Source, @capitalweather.  More information about this record can be found at this link https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/26/the-mind-boggling-new-orleans-heat-record-that-no-one-is-talking-about/?asdfsadf

*Alaska finally had a cooler than normal day on Sunday, September 25th for only the 2nd time in 2016.  Source, @NWSAlaska

*"Cedar Rapids, Iowa is bracing for second biggest river flood on record; Over 250,000 sandbags have been put down in Cedar Rapids.  The Cedar River is expected to crest 11 feet above flood stage on Tuesday". More information at this link https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/26/cedar-rapids-iowa-braces-for-second-biggest-river-flood-on-record/

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 26, 2016

Rain has been falling most of the day east of the Iron Range southeast into portions of northwest Wisconsin, skies in this area have been mostly cloudy as well.  Farther west there hasn't been much rain today in fact there's been some sunshine peeking through the clouds from time to time.  No surprise with the thick cloud cover and rain that temperatures struggled to get out of the mid/upper 40s today in far northeast Minnesota.  Note:  Early this afternoon wind chills (Feels like temperature) were down into the 38-39 degree range at Ely, Hibbing and Cook.

Deep area of low pressure averaging 994mb was centered northwest of Lake Superior late this afternoon with an upper level low located right over the surface low making this system vertically stacked.  The greatest 12-hour 500mb height falls have shifted east of the Northland today with an area of 90-180 meter height falls covering the central/eastern Great Lakes per meso analysis.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Tuesday night (September 26-27)

There will be little change in our weather through Tuesday night -- Strong area of low pressure northwest of Lake Superior this afternoon will drop S-SE into Lake Michigan by tomorrow night.  Moist cyclonic flow on the back side of this system will keep skies mostly cloudy in our area.  Occasional rain and drizzle will also persist tonight mainly over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Borderland regions as well as in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  The western-southwest portions of the area should stay dry tonight.

Light rain and drizzle is forecast to cover a larger portion of the Northland on Tuesday with dry weather returning Tuesday night in all but far northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin where light rain and drizzle is expected to continue.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees but 30s are possible around the Brainerd Lakes area.  Highs on Tuesday in the mid 40s to low 50s with lows Tuesday night in the 40s.

Gusty winds will continue through Tuesday night.  West or north winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday and Thursday (September 28-29)

Nicer weather is still expected mid to late week as low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday with highs mainly in the 60s.  Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 40s with 30s in the typical cold spots.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain or drizzle.  Low 46 to 48.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain and drizzle.  High 48 to 52.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  60
Low:   42

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:55 PM CDT

Tim