Thursday, September 8, 2016

Lake Superior water temperature still well above average for early September; La Nina Watch cancelled; Enso Neutral conditions expected this winter - Warm, cold or average winter in the Northland? 70s on Friday and a pretty nice weekend ahead

/Issued 4:32 PM CDT, Thursday, September 8, 2016/

The average water temperature of Lake Superior is in the mid 60s on this 8th day of September 2016.  Still running well above normal for this time of year.  Source, GLCFS

Red line on the graph=2016 water temperature
Blue line on graph=Average 1992-2015 water temperature
















The image below shows what an Enso-Neutral Winter Pattern typically looks like but not all Enso-Neutral events end up like what this graphic shows.  Two of the long range climate models are quite a bit different for this upcoming winter -- See images below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation










Source, TropicalTidbits.com














Source, TropicalTidbits.com














Source, Climate.gov; NOAA:  https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels

Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.




















Rainfall reports for September 7-8, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Longville, MN 6.2 SW:  3.91"
Wright, MN 3 E:  2.53"
Walker, MN:  2.25"
Brainerd, MN:  2.15"
Danbury, WI:  1.76"

La Prairie, MN:  1.72"
Palisade, MN 1 NNE:  1.55"
Emily, MN:  1.53"
Loman, MN:  1.47"
Grand Rapids, MN 6 SSW:  1.45"

Celina, MN 3 SE:  1.31"
Crane Lake, MN 3 W:  1.30"
Bigfork, MN 2 NNE:  1.24"
Brookston, MN:  1.21"
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  1.20"

Aitkin, MN:  1.16"
Libby, MN:  1.08"
Sawyer, MN 2 E:  1.08"
Friesland, MN 3 WNW:  1.01"
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  1.00"

South Range, WI 4 SSE:  0.96"
Cloquet, MN 1 NE:  0.95"
Duluth, MN 1.5 NNW:  0.90"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.88"
Drummond, WI 11 W:  0.86"

Duluth, MN (NWS)  0.84"
Superior, WI 5 SE:  0.84"
Superior, WI (Airport)  0.81"
Littlefork, MN:  0.79"
Floodwood, MN:  0.78"

Lester Park, MN:  0.75"
Hill City, MN 1 S:  0.75"
Moose Lake, MN 2 SW:  0.74"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.70"
Bayfield, WI:  0.67"

Silver Bay, MN:  0.66"
The Bay Of Grand Marais, MN:  0.64"
Hibbing, MN 5 E:  0.63"
Embarrass, MN:  0.59"
Isabella, MN 1 W:  0.58"

Washburn, WI:  0.58"
Lusten, MN:  0.57"
Oulu, WI:  0.56"
Jacobson, MN:  0.54"
International Falls, MN:  0.52"

Hayward, WI (Airport)  0.51"
Glidden, WI:  0.45"
Saxon, WI 1 WSW:  0.34"
Bayfield, WI 9 N:  0.32"
Ashland, WI:  0.09"

Weather Tidbits
Source:  @NOAANCEIclimate

-Summer 2016 U.S. average temperature was 73.5 degrees F or +2.1 degrees above average.

-Alaska saw its second warmest summer on record in 2016 at 3.0 degrees F above average.

-Summer 2016 U.S. precipitation total was 8.92 inches, +0.60 inches above average.

-Summer 2016 temperatures were much above average for 29 states and below average for none.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 8, 2016

After a bumpy early morning with heavy downpours and thunderstorms, today turned out to be a very nice late summer day under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.  Highs were generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mid 70s reported in a few locations.  Winds today were out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon had a weak area of high pressure over north central Iowa with low pressure in west central Ontario Province.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 8)

High pressure over Iowa moves off to the east with low pressure quickly approaching as it moves across the northern Plains tonight -- A warm and moist advection pattern will develop over the Northland tonight with a chance for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms especially later in the night.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s with winds turning to the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday (September 9)

An area of low pressure along with a cold front will be moving east through the Northland on Friday.  The air aloft will be chilly with H5 temperatures around -15 degrees Celsius - Warmer temperatures near the surface clashing with these colder temperatures aloft will make the atmosphere a little unstable with CAPE possibly building to around 1000 j/kg.  Mid level lapse rates will also be steep at around 7.0 c/km.  The amount of moisture returning north to meet up with this system doesn't look overly impressive though with dew points generally in the 55-60 degree range with PWATS averaging around 1.00"...This will probably result in just scattered passing showers across our area on Friday with a few thunderstorms also possible if enough instability can build up during the day.

Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 70s with near 80 degree temperatures possible over southern areas if there is enough sun.  Lows Friday night will be in the 40s and 50s with lingering showers possible mainly over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and also over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Winds tomorrow will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow night at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Saturday (September 10)

Low pressure moves northeast out of the central Great Lakes and into eastern Canada on Saturday with a cooler N-NW flow occurring behind this system.  Lingering cold temperatures aloft could lead to a few spotty showers on Saturday over parts of the Northland but I think most of us will remain dry.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday (September 11)

Mainly dry with a wind shift to the southwest as the next low pressure system approaches from the west.  Highs on Sunday should mainly be in the 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible late.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph becoming south.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible, maybe an afternoon thunderstorm.  High 73 to 78.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  68
Low:   49

Sunrise Friday:  6:39 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:31 PM CDT

Tim