Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Gusty east wind developing near Lake Superior Wed-Fri; Heavy rain/flood potential mainly south of the Northland Wed-Thu

/Issued 4:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 20, 2016/

Visible satellite imagery from this afternoon.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
















Flash Flood Watch - Green shaded area on map.  Source, NWS Twin Cities.

More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch
















Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Source, Weather Prediction Center.




















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, Pivotal weather
















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.
















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 20, 2016

Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found over the Northland today but the trend late this afternoon has been for a bit more clearing to develop.

There has been an area of sprinkles and light rain showers over portions of north central Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin today but locations that had rain only picked up a trace to a few hundredths of an inch...An area of F-GEN generally around 700mb per late afternoon mesoanalysis helped to produced these sprinkles/light showers today.  High temperatures were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with winds out of the southwest or west at 10 to 20 mph - Certainly not as windy as it was on Monday.

Surface map at 3 PM had low pressure of 1012mb over southern South Dakota with a warm front across far northern Iowa.  High pressure of 1022mb was over southern Lake Michigan.  A strong thermal gradient is in place this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the 90s in Nebraska to around 70 degrees in northern Minnesota.  850mb temperatures ranged from +10 degrees Celsius over far northern Minnesota to +20 degrees Celsius in northwest Iowa.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 20)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with winds turning to the north/east at 5 to 15 mph.  A warm front will remain over far northern Iowa tonight and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development later this evening through the overnight hours -- This activity is forecast to remain well south of the Northland tonight.

Wednesday (September 21)

A frontal boundary remains over far northern Iowa or far southern Minnesota with high pressure over Manitoba and Ontario Province Canada.  Dry air pushing south out central Canada should keep the heaviest rain out of most of the Northland but periods of rain are still expected to develop over portions of north central and eastern Minnesota thru northwest Wisconsin.  Highs tomorrow will mainly be in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing near Lake Superior.

.Extended Forecast...

Thursday (September 22)

A chance for rain continues on Thursday over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with generally dry weather expected in northern Minnesota.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s with lows in the 50s.

Friday through Sunday (September 23-25)

A strong but slow moving upper level trough is forecast to lift northeast into the northern Plains with low pressure and its warm front and cold front moving slowly north/east into the Upper Midwest.  Rain is possible at times over the Northland Friday, Saturday and Sunday with daytime highs mainly in the 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west around 10 mph becoming north to northeast.

.Wednesday...  Turning breezy.  Generally mostly cloudy skies but some peeks of sun possible.  A few showers possible in the afternoon/evening.  High 60 to 65.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  63
Low:  44

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:07 PM CDT

Tim