Wednesday, September 7, 2016

A warm start to September (Duluth around 6 degrees above normal) A period of rain later this evening; Nicer weather on Thursday

/Issued 5:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 7, 2016/

Average temperature and departure from mean for the period September 1-6, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

The greatest departure from average has been across northern Minnesota while southern Minnesota has had near average to slightly above average temperatures so far this month.

Note:  The average temperature from September 1-6 at the Duluth Airport:  66.1 degrees.  The warmest September 1-6 on record occurred in 1971 with an average temperature of 70.4 degrees.




















Tonight's severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
















Severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 9 PM CDT tonight for the area shaded in blue on the map.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.


















Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.




















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 7, 2016

Cooler temperatures today but really just more typical of how it should be in early September.  Highs today ranged from the mid to upper 60s around Lake Superior to around 70 degrees elsewhere.  Sky conditions ranged from overcast in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to partly to mostly sunny over parts of northern Minnesota.  It's been a bit rainy in parts of northwest Wisconsin today, and there's been a small area of showers that have moved through portions of east central Minnesota.  Northern Minnesota has stayed dry today.  Surface map late this afternoon had an area of low pressure of 1008mb over southeast North Dakota with a warm front stretching from western to southern Minnesota with a cold front moving into the eastern Dakotas.

...Rainfall totals from today...
Source:  Mesowest

Barnes, WI:  0.30"
Washburn, WI:  0.25"
Glidden, WI:  0.25"
McGregor, MN:  0.02"

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 7)

A low pressure system with a warm front and cold front will be moving through the area tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous from west to east this evening with precipitation lasting roughly 1-3 hours in any given location.  There is a risk for a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms mainly before Midnight across western sections of the Northland with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.  Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm across the area tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s with east winds turning to the southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday (September 8)

Low pressure exits to the E-NE which will be followed by a weak area of high pressure that'll slide through the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

The next system begins to move in Thursday night -- Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland with a chance for a few showers mainly after Midnight.  Lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds tomorrow night will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Friday (September 9)

A potent low pressure system is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Friday.  Temperatures aloft will be on the cold side (-13 to -18 degrees Celsius) Warmer temperatures near the surface combined with these colder mid level temperatures should make the atmosphere a little unstable...That combined with some lift with the approaching trough and cold front should result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Friday.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s with southern locations possibly hitting 80 degrees if there is enough sunshine.  Lows Friday night will be in the 50s.

Saturday (September 10)

Showers are possible early in the day in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin otherwise partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a few spotty afternoon showers possible.  Highs will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with a north wind behind an exiting low pressure system.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and possible thunderstorms developing mainly after 9 PM.  Areas of fog.  Low 59 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest toward dawn.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  68
Low:   49

Sunrise Thursday:  6:38 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:33 PM CDT

Tim