Thursday, September 29, 2016

A look back at past October snowfall totals at Duluth, MN (1950-2015) Low clouds and east winds the next few days; Next best chance for rain not until Oct 5-7

/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Thursday, September 29, 2016/

Visible satellite image from 3 PM today, September 29, 2016.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

If you live near Lake Superior then you enjoyed mostly sunny skies this afternoon while most of northern and central Minnesota continued to be socked in by a low level cloud deck.  Unfortunately I think the low clouds will return to locations near Lake Superior, so Friday probably won't be as sunny as what we saw this afternoon but hey I've been wrong before.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.




















October begins on Saturday - Here's a look at past October snowfall totals dating back to 1950.

Duluth Airport snowfall totals

*Average snowfall total for October is 2.3"

1950:  0.2"
1951:  5.8"
1952:  0.5"
1953:  Trace
1954:  2.9"
1955:  6.5"
1956:  0.0"
1957:  0.3"
1958:  0.4"
1959:  3.3"

1960:  Trace
1961:  Trace
1962:  0.7"
1963:  0.0"
1964:  Trace
1965:  Trace
1966:  8.1"
1967:  0.8"
1968:  Trace
1969:  4.3"

1970:  0.2"
1971:  0.2"
1972:  0.5"
1973:  Trace
1974:  0.8"
1975:  0.1"
1976:  0.8"
1977:  1.7"
1978:  Trace
1979:  0.8"

1980:  1.3"
1981:  1.4"
1982:  0.8"
1983:  Trace
1984:  3.5"
1985:  2.3"
1986:  1.8"
1987:  3.9"
1988:  0.3"
1989:  0.6"

1990:  3.2"
1991:  4.3"
1992:  5.1"
1993:  0.6"
1994:  0.2"
1995:  9.7"
1996:  0.3"
1997:  1.2"
1998:  Trace
1999:  0.0"

2000:  Trace
2001:  2.0"
2002:  6.3"
2003:  4.5"
2004:  Trace
2005:  0.1"
2006:  4.1"
2007:  Trace
2008:  0.2"
2009:  3.7"

2010:  7.7"
2011:  Trace
2012:  1.1"
2013:  0.3"
2014:  0.1"
2015:  Trace

Notes:

*Since 1950:  3 Octobers had no snow with 1999 the most recent one.

*17 Octobers since 1950 had above average snowfall, the most recent one being in 2010 (7.7")

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 29, 2016

Sunshine finally returned to parts of the area today - Late this afternoon visible satellite imagery showed sunny to mostly sunny skies around Lake Superior and in parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, farther west skies were mostly cloudy.  High temperatures today were in the mid 50s to low 60s with middle 60s from Hayward to Park Falls.  Winds today were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 29)

The low pressure system which had been over the Great Lakes the past few days has moved into Kentucky today with a ridge now covering parts of the Upper Midwest - This ridge will remain in place tonight resulting in mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.  Patchy fog could develop late.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s with 30s in the typical spots.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday (September 30)

Low clouds might have a tough time burning off tomorrow but there should be some clearing by the afternoon especially in western portions of the Northland - Near Lake Superior the low clouds could linger through the day thanks to an easterly wind off Lake Superior.

Highs on Friday will be in the 60s with 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Friday night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Saturday and Sunday (October 1-2)

Low pressure over the southeast U.S. today is forecast to move back toward the N-NW through Sunday with this system moving over the central/eastern Great Lakes region late this weekend.  Clouds associated with this low will likely move into the Northland Saturday and Sunday but there shouldn't be any rain, although some patchy drizzle can't be ruled out at times around Lake Superior due to a moist onshore flow.

Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 60s, possibly holding in the 50s on Saturday near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s.

Looking farther ahead...The next best chance for widespread rain looks to be during the middle-end of next week as low pressure develops over the Rockies and tracks into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.  At this time it looks like October 5-7 will be the time frame where some rain could affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear but clouds increasing during the night.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Patchy drizzle possible.  High 53 to 58.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  59
Low:   40

Sunrise Friday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:49 PM CDT

Tim