Tuesday, September 6, 2016

1-3" rain totals early today in parts of northwest Wisconsin; A few reports of wind damage late last night in northeast Minnesota

/Issued 4:36 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 6, 2016/

Active weather pattern remains in place through Friday.  Here's the water vapor satellite imagery from this afternoon and the overall weather setup for the next few days.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/



























Source, Aerisweather.com

Flood watch remains in effect thru Wednesday morning in portions of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Spooner, Hayward, Park Falls and Phillips.  More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20watch
















Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook valid thru 7 AM Wednesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Day 2 excessive rainfall outlook valid 7 AM Wednesday thru 7 AM Thursday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Source, Storm Prediction Center.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.




















*Local Storm Reports for September 5-6, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*11:50 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 ESE of Biwabik, MN (St. Louis County)  Numerous large trees down with damage to homes.

*1:50 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch diameter.  4 NNE of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)

*11:30 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Mountain Iron, MN (St. Louis County)  Power outages.

*11:43 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  McKinley, MN (St. Louis County)  Large branches down and power outages reported.

*11:50 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Biwabik, MN (St. Louis County)  Large branches down and reports of power outages.

*11:37 PM CDT:  HAIL.  1.00 inch diameter.  2 W of Virginia, MN (St. Louis County)

Rainfall reports for September 5-6, 2016

Park Falls, WI:  3.50"
Winter, WI:  2.44"
Phillips, WI 7 NW:  2.36"
Keewatin, MN 0.2 SSE:  2.02"
Spooner, WI 7.7 W:  1.54"

Gile, WI:  1.53"
Hibbing, MN:  1.41"
Longville, MN 6.2 SW:  1.35"
Grand Marais, MN 4.4 W:  1.35"
Hayward, WI:  1.35"

Chisholm, MN 0.4 WSW:  1.31"
Spooner, WI:  1.22"
Grand Rapids, MN 6.2 SSW:  1.16"
Hovland, MN 0.1 NE:  1.07"
Grand Rapids, MN 2 E:  1.01"

Iron Junction, MN 2 W:  1.00"
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.92"
Cotton, MN:  0.90"
Embarrass, MN:  0.90"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.89"

Odanah, WI 1.6 E:  0.85"
Iron River, WI 7.2 SE:  0.78"
Floodwood, MN:  0.73"
Two Harbors, MN 5 NW:  0.52"
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  0.52"

Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.48"
Carlton, MN 5.6 NE:  0.44"
Two Harbors, MN 0.9 WSW:  0.43"
Poplar, WI 7.8 SSW:  0.36"
Culver, MN 0.2 W:  0.35"
Silver Bay, MN 11.5 NE:  0.21"

Note:  7 one inch or greater precipitation events so far this year at the Duluth Airport.  The annual average is 6 (1981-2010)  In 2015, Duluth also had 7 one inch or greater precipitation events.  The most in a year is 13 in 1991, 1949 and 1879.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 6, 2016

Muggy conditions continued today in most of the Northland with dew points remaining in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees for areas along and south of highway 2 in northeast Minnesota including all of northwest Wisconsin.  Drier air has moved into far northern Minnesota where dew points have fallen into the 50s this afternoon.  High temperatures varied quite a bit today thanks in part to sky conditions.  Generally overcast skies this morning did give way to some sunshine this afternoon which helped to boost temperatures into the 70s to lower 80s but temperatures either behind the cold front or where skies stayed fairly cloudy this afternoon were in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

At 3 PM today a cold front stretched from west central Lake Superior to northwest Wisconsin to southern Minnesota.  Widespread rain and thunderstorms with torrential downpours which led to some flooding occurred this morning in portions of northwest Wisconsin, things have settled down quite a bit this afternoon with just a few spotty showers developing at times while tracking toward the E/NE.

It was mainly dry across northeast Minnesota today after a few rounds of storms last night.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (September 6)

The good news is that another round of heavy rain affecting northwest Wisconsin looks unlikely tonight but the bad news is that scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could continue to develop tonight with brief downpours possible, and with already saturated grounds, any additional rain could lead to localized flooding especially around the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls and Phillips area in northwest Wisconsin.

 It should remain dry tonight across northeast Minnesota.

A cold front over northwestern Wisconsin late this afternoon will slowly move off to the south/east tonight with high pressure building into western Ontario Province.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies can be expected in our area tonight with patchy fog possible.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s possible in far northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north, east or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday (September 7)

High pressure will slide east across Ontario Province while a frontal boundary remains to the south of the Northland -- This front will however shift back to the  north/east thanks to a few areas of low pressure which are forecast to exit the northern Plains and western High Plains region.

Showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms are expected at times especially from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s with 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the east tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with east winds turning to the southwest late tomorrow night.

...Extended Forecast...

Thursday (September 8)

A break in the rain as tomorrow's disturbance exits to the east while the next one moves into the northern Rockies.  High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest on Thursday which should keep us dry.  Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows Thursday night mainly in the 50s.

Friday (September 9)

The next rain maker approaches from the northern Plains.  This one looks pretty vigorous at the moment.  Should be a decent amount of lift associated with this system and that will probably lead to a fairly large shield of rain that affects northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday into Friday night.  Scattered thunderstorms could also develop especially if there is some clearing.  The temperatures aloft look pretty chilly so if we are able to get some clearing that would likely increase the potential for thunderstorms.  Highs on Friday are expected to be in the 60s and 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Cooler.  Not as humid.  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered showers possible especially later in the day.  High 66 to 71.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  A better chance for rain arrives Wednesday night.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  69
Low:  50

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:37 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim