Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Late afternoon weather update; Radar trends

/Issued 5:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 10, 2016/

*Moderate risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance tonight in central Minnesota and far western Wisconsin (Red area on map)

*Slight risk (Yellow shaded area) and Marginal risk (Green shaded area) of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance tonight in northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Source, Weather Prediction Center















Visible satellite image from 5:00 PM, August 10, 2016.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Looks like two boundaries setting up late this afternoon with southeast winds near the actual warm front down near the Twin Cities while winds turn more to the east across northern Minnesota possibly near an 850mb warm frontal boundary.  I think the greatest potential for heavy rain and possible flooding will occur in between the two boundaries but especially from Brainerd and Hinckley on south this evening.
















Source, Storm Prediction Center.


















Radar loop ending at 5 PM CDT.  Source, WSI.














Flash flood watch remains in effect for the area shaded in green on the map.  Source, Aerisweather.com
















*Based on what I'm seeing per radar trends - It looks like the greatest potential for heavy rain and possible flash flooding is setting up over and near the Brainerd Lakes area...This threat should also move farther east into eastern portions of Minnesota this evening and may also affect portions of northwest Wisconsin.

*There is a second area of concern for possible torrential downpours causing localized flooding running from near Grand Rapids toward Hibbing and Cotton, east to Wales and the Castle Danger and Silver Bay areas although I'm not real sure how long this activity will last as the better instability and moisture is found farther south from the Iron Range and North Shore.

As for Duluth and Superior...Nothing is imminent as of 5:15 PM.  All of the thunderstorms are north and west of the city with only slow movement toward the east noted per radar data.

Tim