/Issued 12:52 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 10, 2016/
Green shaded area on the map=Flash Flood Watch. Source, aerisweather.com
More info below.
Severe weather outlook through tonight - Updated at 11:30 AM today. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
*Flash Flood Watch* has been issued for portions of the Northland from 4 PM this afternoon until 11 AM CDT Thursday. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Counties included in the watch in northeast, east central and north central Minnesota
Central and Southern St. Louis
In northwest Wisconsin:
*Some cities included in the watch*
Hibbing...Duluth...Floodwood...Cloquet...Carlton...Cromwell...Moose Lake...Sandstone...Hinckley...Pine City...McGregor...Hill City...Aitkin...Brainerd...Pine River...Cass Lake...Longville...Walker...Grand Rapids...Bigfork...Superior...Solon Springs...Gordon...Danbury...Webster...Grantsburg...and Siren.
More information about this flash flood watch can be found at this link - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch
Rainfall totals from the round of storms from this morning
Aitkin, MN: 1.66"
McGregor, MN: 0.85"
Barnes, WI: 0.80"
Walker, MN: 0.47"
Cass Lake, MN: 0.42"
Clam Lake, WI: 0.41"
Effie, MN: 0.36"
Longville, MN: 0.31"
Cloquet, MN: 0.25"
Minong, WI: 0.24"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.23"
Two Harbors, MN: 0.22"
Ashland, WI: 0.21"
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.17"
Washburn, WI: 0.17"
Ely, MN: 0.16"
Orr, MN: 0.15"
Superior, WI: 0.12"
It appears that everything is in place for a potential heavy rain/flood event across portions of the Northland through Thursday morning but there continues to be some uncertainty on where the heaviest rain bands setup for tonight and Thursday morning. A few models like the idea of keeping the greatest rainfall totals farther south across central and eastern Minnesota while other models are targeting areas farther north -- I think either solution could verify although with the warm front near or just south of the Twin Cities early this afternoon the southern solution may work out better but again will just have to wait and see how things develop through the afternoon-early evening hours.
-Warm front is over southern or the south central portion of Minnesota early this afternoon and it extends into central Wisconsin. There is a tremendous amount of moisture already in place across the region with PWATS of 1.50-1.70" which will increase to around 2.00 to 2.25" tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous in northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through the afternoon hours with storms continuing tonight into Thursday morning -- Rainfall rates of 1" to as much as 3" an hour could occur in a few of the storms with the tropical airmass in place.
Note: Average storm total rainfall amounts by Thursday morning should range from 1-3" in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin but there is a pretty good chance for totals greater than 4-5" over small areas that are in the flash flood watch.