Thursday, August 4, 2016

August 4, 2016: Western Lake Superior water temperatures have warmed into the low 70s; Some thoughts on the early morning severe storms; Quieter, cooler and much less humid weather the next few days. Storm and rainfall reports in this post

/Issued 5:09 PM CDT, Thursday, August 4, 2016/

Red line on the graph is the 2016 water temperature of Lake Superior compared to the 1991-2015 average which is the blue line on the graph.

Note how much above average the water temperature is running in early August 2016 compared to the 1991-2015 average.  Around +20 degrees Celsius now; average for early August is around +15 degrees Celsius.

 Source, https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/gif/avgtemps-s_1992-2015.gif
















Water temperatures have warmed into the low 70s over western Lake Superior at McQuade Harbor just northeast of Duluth.  60+ degree water temperatures farther out over Lake Superior this afternoon.












Storm reports map for August 3-4, 2016 ending at 7 AM CDT today.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Blue dots=Wind reports

Note:  6 preliminary tornado reports last evening in far northern North Dakota (Red dots on map)















12-hour enhanced satellite loop 1:30 AM this morning to 1:30 PM this afternoon.  Source, Unisys.com

The MCS that moved through the Northland this morning had cloud tops as cold as -55 to -65 degrees Celsius.



























Forecast for Duluth and Superior























Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  76
Low:  56

Sunrise Friday:  5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:34 PM CDT

Local Storm Reports for August 4, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*3:12 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 ENE of Brainerd, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)  Several trees down and some large branches across the eastern side of Brainerd including near the Brainerd mall.

*4:18 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 WNW of Twig, MN (St. Louis County)  Large tree down.

*1:05 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  A large tree split and all of its trunks fell.  One of the trunks fell onto a house...doing some damage to the house.

*3:17 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 NE of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  Two large oak trees of 12-18 inch diameter knocked down.

*3:20 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 SE of Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)  A statue of Babe the Blue Ox succombed to strong winds and tipped over at Paul Bunyan land east of Brainerd.

*3:45 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 E of Wright, MN (Carlton County)  A large tree...80 feet tall...and many other trees down.

*3:10 AM:  NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 ENE of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)  Trees down blocking Sunset Valley road north of CR-13.

*4:36 AM:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND.  39 mph.  2 ESE of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

*4:41 AM:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND.  37 mph.  5 SE of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  At Sky Harbor Airport.

*4:36 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 W of Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)  Large tree down.

*4:31 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  67 mph.  3 NE of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  At Duluth International Airport.

*3:09 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 S of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)  Numerous trees reported down in the area of state Highway 371 and Nashway road.  Multiple roads blocked and trees down on power lines.

*3:02 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 NNE of Lake Shore, MN (Cass County)  More than 12 large white pines and poplars snapped off or toppled.  Power lines down.  Some trees on power lines.

*3:22 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  78 mph.  3 WNW of Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)  At Brainerd International Airport.

*3:06 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  73 mph.  2 S of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)  At northeast Gull Lake.

*5:09 AM:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND.  36 mph.  1 N of Knife River, MN (Lake County)

*3:19 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)  One large tree and several small trees down in Breezy Point.

*3:05 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  4 E of East Gull Lake, MN (Crow Wing County)  A pontoon boat on the southwest side of North Long Lake was flipped over and the dock was damaged.

*4:22 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 SSE of Taft, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees were down on Esker Trail near Fish Lake and blocking the road.

*4:19 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Twig, MN (St. Louis County)  A couple large trees down along Canosia road near Twig.

*4:27 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 N of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  Tree down along Ugstad road...halfway between Arrowhead road and Highway 53.

*3:48 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 E of Wealthwood, MN (Aitkin County)  The Aitkin County Sheriff Department reported some trees down along Minnesota State Highway 18 on the north side of Mille Lacs Lake.

*3:12 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 S of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  Several trees down and tin roof sheeting scattered on road near southeast 13th street in Brainerd near the county fairgrounds.

*4:20 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 NNE of Twig, MN (St. Louis County)  Large branches down along Munger Shaw road.

*4:18 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 WNW of Twig, MN (St. Louis County)  Large tree down.

*12:52 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Inger, MN (Itasca County)  A few 6 to 8 inch diameter trees downed.

*12:58 AM:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  60 mph.  8 NNE of Bena, MN (Cass County)

Rainfall reports for August 4, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

Pine River, MN:  2.27"
Cass Lake, MN:  1.88"
Walker, MN:  1.65"
Orr, MN:  1.15"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.89"

International Falls, MN:  0.78"
McGregor, MN:  0.77"
Aitkin, MN:  0.76"
Longville, MN:  0.76"
Ely, MN:  0.71"

Eveleth-Virginia, MN:  0.54"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.54"
Brainerd, MN:  0.51"
Cook, MN:  0.43"
Hayward, WI:  0.36"

Isabella, MN:  0.32"
Phillips, WI:  0.31"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.29"
Minong, WI:  0.28"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.28"

Clam Lake, WI:  0.27"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.25"
Cloquet, MN:  0.21"
Glidden, WI:  0.18"
Ashland, WI:  0.11"
Washburn, WI:  0.09"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 4, 2016

A strong area of low pressure averaging 1000mb has moved into western Ontario Province late this afternoon with a cold front attached to this low extending from the Arrowhead of Minnesota through western Lake Superior to western Wisconsin down into central Iowa.  Impressive 12-hour 500mb height falls of 60-90 meters were occurring today just north of the border with H5 height falls of around 30 meters occurring south of the border over northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.  High temperatures today were in the low to mid 80s in parts of eastern and northeast Minnesota and in all of northwest Wisconsin to the 70s in northern Minnesota.  Dew points were a big story today with very soupy air found in eastern and northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s while drier air has been pushing south/east out of northern Minnesota late this afternoon where dew points were in the comfy 50s.  Winds today were out of the west, northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Note:  A round of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and some severe weather moved through much of the Northland early this morning - The worst of the storm damage was concentrated over the Brainerd Lakes area (Seems like that has happened a lot this summer) But sporadic wind damage was reported as far east as Duluth, and north to Bigfork and Twig.

The amount of instability (CAPE) that was in place early this morning was less compared to what happened a few weeks ago on July 21st - Around 500-1000 j/kg this morning vs. 2000+ j/kg back on the 21st of July -- The lower amount of instability early today may have kept this from becoming a more widespread damaging wind event in the Northland, but with that said a few areas did get hit quite hard so even though your town/neighborhood may have lucked out in regards to getting little or no storm damage, other areas weren't as lucky.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Tonight (August 4)

Turning less humid and cooler as dew points continue to lower into the 50s from NW-SE during the night.  High pressure moves into the northern Plains while strong low pressure moves into southern Hudson Bay.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s with a west or northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

A cold front will exit northwest Wisconsin early this evening but until that happens there is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail being the main threats along with downpours and lightning.  Note:  So far late this afternoon thunderstorms that have developed have struggled to become very intense, will see if that trend continues through around 7-8 PM this evening before everything shifts east of northwest Wisconsin and extreme northeast Minnesota.  Parameters that are already in place for possible severe storms is quite impressive late this afternoon in northwest Wisconsin but again thunderstorms have struggled to intensify so far.

Friday (August 5)

Cooler and less humid.  Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.  Dew points will generally be in the 50s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a few passing showers in far northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  High pressure will remain over the northern Plains tomorrow while low pressure heads into Quebec Province.

Extended Forecast

Saturday and Sunday (August 6-7) look nice with high pressure in control  -- Highs are forecast to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tim