Friday, August 26, 2016

August 26, 2016: Not a total washout this weekend but scattered showers, few t-storms possible both Saturday and Sunday; Turning muggier by Sunday and Monday

/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Friday, August 26, 2016/

Source, 18z HopWRF-ARW model run.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.




















Low temperature reports for August 26, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  39 F
1 E Birchdale, MN:  40 F
5 NW Ash Lake, MN:  41 F
Crane Lake, MN:  41 F
Embarrass, MN:  42 F
Bigfork, MN:  43 F
Cass Lake, MN (DNR)  44 F
1 S Hill City, MN:  44 F
Bruno, MN:  45 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  45 F

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 26, 2016

Lots of sunshine this morning gave way to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon.  High temperatures were generally in the 70-75 degree range with a few locations mainly in far northeast Minnesota holding in the upper 60s late this afternoon.  Winds today were mostly out of the south or southwest at around 10 mph so much less wind today compared to previous days.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (August 26)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.  High pressure over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will move slowly toward the east tonight while a disturbance approaches from the west and also from the southwest.

Saturday (August 27)

Occasional showers are possible tomorrow but I don't think this will be an all day rain event, in fact some parts of the Northland could remain dry through most of the day.

It's a somewhat complicated setup Saturday as a disturbance lifts northeast out of the central Plains while another one moves east out of the northern Plains -- There will be a warm front associated with the disturbance to our southwest but this boundary will stay well to the south of the Northland.

Showers could develop at times as low level moisture increases through the day.  Dew points are expected to rise into the mid 50s to low 60s with PWATS of around 1.00-1.25".

Colder temperatures moving in aloft (H5 temps nearing -15 degrees Celsius) will help make the atmosphere a little unstable Saturday afternoon-evening with CAPE possibly approaching 1000 j/kg in western portions of the Northland -- This will probably lead to a couple of thunderstorms with a potential for some hail and or gusty winds.

Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Sunday and Monday (August 28-29)

Mild temperatures and more humid conditions on the way for Sunday and Monday as a weak boundary (More or less a warm front) sets-up over the Upper Midwest while a cold front moves southeast across the Northland during Monday afternoon and Monday night.

High temperatures on Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with dew points climbing into the 60s, possibly up around 70 degrees.

Looks like there will be quite a bit of instability over the Northland Sunday and Monday per model projections but the winds aloft look fairly weak especially on Sunday but even on Monday the mid-upper level winds don't look very strong.  The low level jet is forecast to be in the 15-25 knot range on Sunday and a little stronger Monday 25-35 knots.

With the boundary near the area coupled with the moist and unstable airmass there certainly could be some showers and thunderstorms that bubble up Sunday and Monday but the overall severe weather threat is relatively low, but isolated stronger thunderstorms are possible.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy but can't rule out some partial sunshine.  Scattered showers possible especially by late morning into the afternoon.  High 67 to 72.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  72
Low:  53

Sunrise Saturday:  6:22 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:56 PM CDT

Tim