Monday, August 22, 2016

August 22, 2016: Warm, windy and humid into Tuesday; A good day to check out the fair or some great dirt track racing at Amsoil Speedway Tuesday evening; Storm reports from late this afternoon (Hail reported at Gile and Hurley, WI) A look back at last winter in this post

/Issued 5:44 PM CDT, Monday, August 22, 2016/

Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
















Tuesday, August 23 severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.




















Temperature departure map for the winter of 2015-16.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Average temperature for the 2015-16 winter.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Starting my winter forecast preparation but I don't plan on making some sort of forecast until October, most likely toward the end of that month.

Today I'll be taking a look back at last winter (2015-16) which was a strong El Nino event.

Note:  Meteorological winter is the period from December 1 - February 28

Average temperature at the Duluth Airport:  18.9 degrees
Average:  13.4 degrees
Departure:  +5.5 degrees warmer than normal

Number of days with a subzero low temperature:

December 2015:  0

January 2016:  10

February 2016:  9

Total:  19 days with a low temperature of 0 F or colder.
Average:  34 days

**Departure:  15 fewer days with a subzero low temperature compared to average last winter**

The coldest temperature last winter was -21 degrees below zero on January 17th.

Snowfall totals:

December 2015:  24.6" (+6.9" above normal)
January 2016:  13.0" (-6.4" below normal)
February 2016:  12.2" (-0.2" below normal)

Total snowfall last winter:  49.8"
Normal:  49.5"
Departure:  +0.3" above normal

*Last winter if you can call it that was a wimpy one for Northland standards.  Snowfall was slightly above average in Duluth but just by a few tenths of an inch.  Only 19 subzero nights last winter in Duluth, not even close to the average which is 34 subzero low temperature days from December through February.  The average temperature finished over +5.0 degrees warmer than average last winter.

Note:  If this coming winter is closer to average in Duluth it'll feel a lot worse especially considering the mild winter we had last year - And no I'm not saying that this coming winter will be closer to average, just that if it were to be, well it would seem like a pretty harsh winter all things considered.

Winter normals for the Duluth Airport (1981-2010 climate period)

Temperature:  13.4 degrees
Number of subzero low temperature days:  34
Snowfall:  49.5"

For those interested here's a link to the Head Of The Lakes Fair in Superior, Wisconsin which begins on Tuesday and continues through the weekend http://holfair.com/

*Local Storm Reports for August 22, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*4:45 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch diameter.  Gile, WI (Iron County)

*4:50 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch diameter.  Hurley, WI (Iron County)  Hail from pea to just less than quarter size covered the ground.  Hail fell for approximately 10 minutes ending at 4:50 PM.  Largest stones were flattened by impact and expanded to nearly quarter size.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 22, 2016

A windy but warm day as strong southerly winds lock in between low pressure over the northern Rockies and high pressure over the Ohio Valley.  Early morning showers passed through extreme northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead with sunny to partly cloudy skies occurring across the entire area today.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed late this afternoon in far eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin, mainly east of a line from Ashland to Park Falls with brief downpours and some lightning noted with that spotty activity.  High temperatures today were mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Late afternoon dew points ranged from the mid 50s to low 60s.  Winds today were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (August 22)

Partly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and 60s.  South or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts this evening.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Tuesday (August 23)

Another breezy and warm day ahead under partly cloudy skies.  Highs should mainly be in the 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Dew points are forecast to be in the 60s to around 70 degrees so it will also feel a little more tropical compared to this past weekend.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible by the afternoon.  Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 60s.

Note:  The atmosphere will be unstable through Tuesday night but there's not much of a trigger to get storms to fire.  Warm air advection is the main reason why a few spotty storms developed late this afternoon in northwest Wisconsin, this warm air advection pattern will likely persist through Tuesday but warm temperatures moving in aloft should cap the atmosphere resulting in little to no thunderstorm development in our area.  By late Tuesday night a cold front approaches from western Minnesota but only expecting a few showers or thunderstorms to affect parts of the Northland as that boundary moves into the Northland late Tuesday night.

...Extended Forecast...

Wednesday (August 24)

A cold front will move through eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the morning-early afternoon hours while low pressure stays north of the border -- Could have a few showers or thunderstorms around parts of the Northland on Wednesday but this doesn't look like a real big deal at the moment.  Still warm on Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s.  It will also be humid in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees but less humid conditions will move into north central Minnesota and then farther south and east by Wednesday evening.

Thursday (August 25)

Cooler with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy and mild.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 15 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after sunset.

.Tuesday...  Breezy, warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind south at 15 to 25 mph.  Dew point 65 to 70 degrees.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  73
Low:  54

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:04 PM CDT

Tim