Thursday, August 18, 2016

August 18, 2016: Computer model differences still showing up for Saturday - Major storm with lots of rain and high winds in parts of the Northland per NAM guidance; Other models show a weaker system tracking farther east (Less impact for most of the Northland) Scattered shower potential through Friday with highs in the 70s

/Issued 4:48 PM CDT, Thursday, August 18, 2016/

Here are two model solutions for Saturday-Sunday morning -- By far the NAM continues to be the most extreme model with the other models showing a weaker system (so far)  Can't really discount the NAM just yet but it has been and continues to be the only model that shows a track farther west and it also shows a much deeper low pressure system compared to the other computer models.

















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.




















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 18, 2016

A mixed bag of weather over the area today thanks to a complex of showers and thunderstorms which held together as it moved east/southeast out of eastern North Dakota through western, central and eastern Minnesota and into far northwest Wisconsin this afternoon -- As the activity moved farther east out of central Minnesota it decreased in coverage and intensity.  Sky conditions varied between overcast to mostly sunny today depending on where you are.  Highs were in the 70s and 80s but did fall into the 60s for areas that had some rain this afternoon.  Weather map as of 3 PM had a cold front stretching from eastern South Dakota to the northwest half of Minnesota with low pressure of 1008mb over southeast South Dakota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (August 18)

A cold front will continue to move east/southeast out of western Minnesota and through most of the Northland later tonight.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible at times in parts of the area tonight but the threat for severe thunderstorms has diminished considerably, in fact even the threat for strong thunderstorms is quite low.  Storms that are able to develop could produce heavy downpours though thanks to moist airmass that is in place.  Lightning will also be a hazard from any thunderstorm.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south, west or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday (August 19)

Cold front should extend from central Lake Superior to west central Wisconsin to southern Minnesota tomorrow morning -- This front will then move a little farther to the south/east through Friday night.  Low pressure is forecast to develop over the central Plains, this low will then lift northeast toward eastern Iowa by early Saturday morning.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are on tap for Friday and there could be some showers at times especially in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures will mainly be in the 70s with lows Friday night ranging from the 50s in northern Minnesota to the 60s in northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the north, south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Saturday (August 20)

Major model differences continue for this weekend.  The NAM continues to show a major storm lifting north/east out of eastern Iowa while other computer models like the GFS, EURO and CANADIAN show a weaker area of low pressure moving farther east.

-What to expect:  If the NAM is correct, then a wind driven soaking rain will likely occur in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Saturday with total rainfall of 1-2".  Winds will shift to the north and could increase to 25-35 mph with higher gusts possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

-Should the other models be correct, then expect mostly light rain or scattered showers in parts of the Northland on Saturday with much calmer winds.

One thing that does look certain will be for cooler temperatures with highs on Saturday in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday (August 21)

Low pressure is forecast to move into eastern Canada while high pressure builds into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Mainly dry weather on Sunday with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible at times.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 72 to 77.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  74
Low:   54

Sunrise Friday:  6:12 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:11 PM CDT

Tim