Sunday, August 14, 2016

August 14, 2016: 25-30" of rain the past few days in parts of Louisiana; Spotty showers early tonight-Patchy fog later on; Around 80 and dry in Duluth on Monday

/Issued 1:55 PM CDT, Sunday, August 14, 2016/

The big weather story the past few days has been the epic amount of rain that has fallen over portions of southern Louisiana.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 2 feet or more have been reported in parts of southern Louisiana...With a total of 31" of rain reported near Watson -- To put this into perspective -- The annual average precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota is 30.96".  Some cities in Louisiana have seen close to or more precipitation than Duluth averages in an entire year in just a span of a few days.  Amazing!

The map below shows the amount of precipitation that has fallen during the past few days, ending on August 13, 2016.
















Last week's temperature departure map.  Generally near or above average temperatures in the Northland with the Arrowhead of Minnesota having below average temperatures last week.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Here in the Northland generally below average precipitation totals except in southern areas which had near or above average totals -- The greatest departure from normal was across southern Minnesota thanks to the midweek heavy rain/flood event.
















Heads up for later this week.  A few severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Severe weather outlook for Thursday, August 18.














Severe weather outlook for Friday, August 19.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

August 7-13, 2016

High temperatures:

8/7:  76 F/Normal
8/8:  79 F/+3 degrees above normal
8/9:  85 F/+9 degrees above normal
8/10:  69 F/-7 degrees below normal
8/11:  72 F/-3 degrees below normal
8/12:  67 F/-8 degrees below normal
8/13:  78 F/+3 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

8/7:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal
8/8:  54 F/-2 degrees below normal
8/9:  65 F/+10 degrees above normal
8/10:  57 F/+2 degrees above normal
8/11:  61 F/+6 degrees above normal
8/12:  59 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/13:  59 F/+4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.40"
Normal:  0.84"
Departure:  -0.44" below normal

Louisiana rainfall totals from August 9 - 14, 2016
Source:  Weather Prediction Center

Note: Totals listed below are from 6 AM Aug 9 through 9 AM Aug 14

1.1 miles south of Watson:  31.39"
4 miles east of Brownfields:  27.47"
3 miles east-northeast of Monticello:  26.26"
4.1 miles northeast of Denham Springs:  24.75"
Livingston:  24.11"
New Iberia/Acadiana:  23.70"
Lafayette Regional Airport:  21.60"
Baton Rouge:  19.14"
1 mile north of Lake Charles:  18.10"
New Orleans/Moisant:  6.51"

Story about this heavy rain/major flood event from NBC news: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/louisiana-flooding-least-three-dead-officials-warn-more-rain-come-n630331

A big event in Duluth this week -- Tall Ships Festival.  If you're interested in this, more information about this event can be found at this link http://tallshipsduluth.com/festival/overview/

The weather for the tall ships doesn't look too bad right now.  The warmest day looks to be on Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s in Duluth, cooler temperatures move in on Friday with highs in the 70s, cooling into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday.  The best chance for some rain comes late Thursday night/early Friday morning, and possibly again Friday afternoon.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 14, 2016

Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs generally in the 70s but a few locations south of Highway 2 are making a run at 80 degree temperatures late this afternoon.  Winds were out of the northwest or west-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

...Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (August 14)

A few spotty showers could develop late this afternoon into the early evening hours with a NW flow aloft in place combined with lingering cold temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere, most of us should remain dry though.  Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies tonight with patchy fog late. Lows will be the 50s to lower 60s with 40s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the west or south at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday (August 15)

An area of high pressure moves out of the Upper Midwest and into the central/eastern Great Lakes on Monday.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with a chance for showers or thunderstorms mainly over western-northern areas as south winds on the backside of high pressure draws a more humid airmass north into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Monday night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Tuesday (August 16)

Showers or thunderstorms are possible at times on Tuesday but severe weather isn't expected, but there could be some heavy downpours in a few of the storms.  A weak surface trough will move slowly into the Northland on Tuesday with a moist and somewhat unstable airmass along and ahead of this boundary.  Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tuesday night mainly in the 60s.

Wednesday (August 17)

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday mainly for eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs should be in the 70s and 80s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight:  Passing clouds this evening with an isolated brief shower possible.  Mostly clear late with patchy fog possible.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday:  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew point around 60 degrees.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  75
Low:   55

Sunrise Monday:  6:07 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:18 PM CDT

Tim