Monday, August 1, 2016

August 1, 2016: Muggy! Dew points around 70 degrees Tuesday; Showers/t-storms possible into Tuesday (Heavy downpours) Strong-severe t-storms possible early Thursday morning. July climate summaries in this post

/Issued 4:30 PM CDT, Monday, August 1, 2016/

Severe weather outlook for tonight.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Tuesday, August 2, 2016 severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Heads up for Thursday, August 4th -- 15% chance for severe thunderstorms over most of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and far southeast Minnesota.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Note:  This risk area could shift a bit more to the west in coming days depending on how fast the cold front moves later this week.














Forecast for Duluth and Superior























Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  76
Low:   56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:38 PM CDT

Excessive rainfall outlook valid until 7 AM CDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Average number of August tornadoes (1989-2013)  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Minnesota:  5
Wisconsin:  3













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















*Doppler radar rainfall estimates from Monday morning*











July 2016 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  67.1 degrees
Normal:  65.8 degrees
Departure:  +1.3 degrees above normal

Warmest high temperature:  90 F on the 22nd
Warmest low temperature:  66 F on the 26th

Coldest high temperature:  66 F on the 14th
Coldest low temperature:  45 F on the 1st

30 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
10 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 90 F

1 day with a high temperature below 70 F

3 days with a low temperature below 50 F
11 days with a low temperature of 60 F or warmer

Total precipitation:  4.39"
Normal:  3.85"
Departure:  +0.54" above normal

Heaviest daily rainfall total:  2.27" on the 14th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  13
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  7
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation:  3
Number of days with at least 1.00" of precipitation:  1

Notes:

8 thunderstorm days
3rd consecutive above average temperature month (May, June and July)

June 2015 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  69.2 degrees
Departure:  +3.4 degrees above normal

30 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
16 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F

1 day with a high temperature below 70 F

1 day with a low temperature below 50 F
12 days with a low temperature of 60 F or warmer

Total precipitation:  3.01"
Departure:  -0.84" below normal

Notes:

3 thunderstorm days

July 2016 climate summaries for select cities

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  65.9 degrees
Departure:  +0.7 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.43"
Departure:  -1.27" below normal

***6 thunderstorm days***

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  75.2 degrees
Departure:  +1.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  5.09"
Departure:  +1.05" above normal

***9 thunderstorm days***

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  70.4 degrees
Departure:  +0.1 degree above normal

Total precipitation:  6.74"
Departure:  +3.43" above normal

***9 thunderstorm days***

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:

Average temperature:  71.8 degrees
Departure:  +0.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.51"
Departure:  -0.37" below normal

***8 thunderstorm days***

Marquette, Michigan:

Average temperature:  66.2 degrees
Departure:  +0.7 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.49"
Departure:  +0.65" above normal

***8 thunderstorm days***

Duluth, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  67.1 degrees
Departure:  +1.3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  4.39"
Departure:  +0.54" above normal

***8 thunderstorm days***

July 2016 temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















July 2016 total precipitation: Percent of mean.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 24-30, 2016

High temperatures:

7/24:  81 F/+4 degrees above normal
7/25:  83 F/+6 degrees above normal
7/26:  83 F/+6 degrees above normal
7/27:  71 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/28:  73 F/-4 degrees below normal
7/29:  74 F/-3 degrees below normal
7/30:  75 F/-2 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

7/24:  62 F/+6 degrees above normal
7/25:  61 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/26:  66 F/+10 degrees above normal
7/27:  57 F/+1 degree above normal
7/28:  52 F/-4 degrees below normal
7/29:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/30:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.07"
Normal:  0.77"
Departure:  -0.70" below normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  August 1, 2016

The month of August begins warm and humid.  High temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s with late afternoon dew points in the 60s with a few locations close to 70 degrees from International Falls toward the Brainerd Lakes.  Temperatures were a little cooler closer to Lake Superior today, but now that lake water temperatures are in the mid to even upper 60s the lake wind doesn't have much of a bite compared to how it felt back in May and June.  Winds today were out of the south or east at 10 to around 20 mph.

There was an area of showers that developed and moved north/northeast over a part of northeastern Minnesota this morning -- Most of this rain fell along a line between Grand Rapids and Wawina northeast to Hibbing and Chisholm and up toward Gheen and Orr -- Note:  Nearly 1.50" of rain was reported in Hibbing this morning with amounts tapering to less than 0.10" in Orr.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Tonight (August 1)

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east across the Northland tonight as a cold front currently over the central Dakotas (4 PM) moves east into north central Minnesota by daybreak -- Storms will develop in far northern and western portions of the area during the evening and will then move farther east after midnight.

Locally heavy rain is possible tonight with PWATS ranging from around 1.20-1.60".

A few of the storms could also be on the strong side with CAPE generally around 1000 j/kg along with around 30 knots of deep layer shear.  Wind gusts approaching 60 mph and hail near 1.00 inch diameter (Quarter size) will be the main hazards from stronger storms tonight along with cloud to ground lightning strikes in and close to any thunderstorm.

Low temperatures will be in the 60s to lower 70s with a south or east wind continuing at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday (August 2)

Showers and thunderstorms could persist into Tuesday morning in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin; Lightning and heavy downpours should be the main hazards out of this activity.
What happens Tuesday afternoon and early evening is unclear at the moment -- A cold front over north central Minnesota tomorrow morning is forecast to move off to the east, reaching northwest Wisconsin by early Tuesday evening -- If the atmosphere can recover after the morning convection, then there could be some additional thunderstorms that develop Tuesday afternoon/evening especially over northwest Wisconsin, but there's also a chance for a few storms back into northeast and east central portions of Minnesota depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage.

Mid level winds out of the west/northwest will increase ~35 knots with southwest flow at 850mb; 70-90 knot upper level winds off to our north...CAPE possibly exceeding 1500 j/kg with about 30-35 knots of deep layer shear...These parameters would support a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening but this is dependent on skies clearing for a bit and also the timing of the cold front.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday with highs in the 80s while dew points stay on the muggy side ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s.  Winds will be out of the south or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast

Dry weather is expected Wednesday as an area of high pressure passes through the Northland, highs will be in the 80s but with lower dew points in the 50s to lower 60s.

A chance for showers and thunderstorms returns late Wednesday night into Thursday as a potent system moves quickly through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Note:  There is a chance for severe weather with a damaging wind potential in portions of the Northland during the overnight hours of Wednesday carrying over into Thursday morning.

Tim