Monday, August 29, 2016

1-2"+ rain totals in much of northern Minnesota from last night's storms; Humid with additional t-storms possible late this afternoon/evening

/Issued 12:57 PM CDT, Monday, August 29, 2016/

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery and surface analysis - See map below.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

The main feature to watch today is the cold front which was over northwest Minnesota early this afternoon -- This front will move east and is forecast to move into northeast Minnesota by late this afternoon and into northwest Wisconsin this evening.  Debris clouds in the wake of the early morning storms were beginning to shrink/erode in northeast Minnesota and skies should become partly to mostly sunny by 2 PM where it's still overcast at Noon today.

Temperatures will warm into the 70s and perhaps the 80s depending on how soon and for how long skies will remain partly cloudy.  Dew points will hold in the 60s while the instability increases as skies clear this afternoon.  By late afternoon, CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg is forecast to be in place across parts of the Northland.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop between 4-6 PM today and linger through the evening hours.  At the moment, it looks like the better chances for additional storms later this afternoon will be along and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota and will include all of northwest Wisconsin.

Wind shear is on the marginal side today, and winds aloft are also on the weak side.  The low level jet is forecast to be in the 25-30 knot range which is also marginal.  So although scattered thunderstorm development is possible later today, the overall severe weather potential is relatively low, but pulse type storms containing hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out.  Heavy downpours will probably be one of the bigger hazards due to the abundant moisture in place.  Lightning will also be a hazard from any thunderstorm.
















Severe weather outlook through this evening.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
























12-hour enhanced satellite loop starting at 11:30 PM last night (Aug 28) ending at 11:30 AM today (Aug 29)  Source, unisys.com

Colder cloud tops show up in darker blue and green colors - Temperatures as low as 60 below to around 70 below zero Celsius last night associated with the large thunderstorm complex that affected much of the Northland.

















Thunderstorm cloud tops were so tall prior to sunset last evening that it was casting shadows downstream of where the thunderstorms were located.  Check out these visible satellite images from 7:15 PM and from 7:45 PM CDT Sunday evening, August 28, 2016. Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

By the way cloud tops with the massive supercell/tornadic thunderstorm just northeast of Ada, Minnesota last evening ranged from 60,000-69,000 feet -- Incredible!
































Rainfall reports for August 28-29, 2016
Source; CoCoRaHs; MesoWest; National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Crane Lake, MN 3 W:  2.98"
Lake Winnibigoshish, MN:  2.88"
Orr, MN 3 E:  2.43"
Kabetogama, MN:  2.41"

Bigfork, MN 8 S:  2.23"
Hibbing, MN:  2.17"
Littlefork, MN:  2.03"
Cook, MN:  1.98"

Iron Junction, MN 3.4 WNW:  1.85"
Embarrass, MN:  1.85"
Grand Falls, MN:  1.81"
Keewatin, MN 0.2 SSE:  1.71"

Littlefork, MN 1 NNE:  1.71"
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  1.40"
Chisholm, MN 0.4 WSW:  1.28"
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  1.27"

Togo, MN:  1.19"
Deer River, MN 3.7 W:  1.09"
Cook, MN 14.8 WSW:  1.08"
Duluth, MN (NWS total)  1.04"

Winton, MN 0.1 WSW:  1.01"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.99"
Pillager, MN 5.1 N:  0.97"
Duluth, MN 17.6 NNW:  0.94"

Hermantown, MN 9.3 NNE:  0.93"
Cloquet, MN 3.1 ENE:  0.85"
Pine River, MN 2.7 NE:  0.84"
Kabetogama, MN 1.5 NW:  0.80"

Longville, MN 6.2 SW:  0.78"
Duluth, MN 4.2 NNE:  0.74"
Emily, MN 1 SSE:  0.74"
Barnes, WI 2.2 S:  0.69"

Two Harbors, MN 3.6 WNW:  0.67"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.67"
Carlton, MN 5.6 NE:  0.64"
Duluth, MN 7.9 SW:  0.59"

Superior, WI (Airport)  0.59"
Duluth, MN 1.9 NNE:  0.58"
Brainerd, MN 6.9 NW:  0.55"
International Falls, MN:  0.55"

McGregor, MN 7.3 N:  0.53"
Brainerd, MN:  0.49"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.49"
Two Harbors, MN 9.7 NNE:  0.48"

Askov, MN 0.8 S:  0.47"
Isabella, MN:  0.46"
Mahtowa, MN 3.2 NW:  0.43"
Poplar, WI 7.8 SSW:  0.39"

Moose Lake, MN:  0.31"
Grand Marais, MN 4.4 W:  0.28"
Minong, WI:  0.25"
Tofte, MN 4.9 NE:  0.23"

Mellen, WI 18.6 SW:  0.21"
Hinckley, MN:  0.21"
Ashland, WI 0.5 WNW:  0.20"
Odanah, WI 1.6 E:  0.19"

Tim