Saturday, July 9, 2016

July 9, 2016: Several rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms possible through Monday night; Flash flooding possible

/Issued 8:49 PM CDT, Saturday, July 9, 2016/

Sunday, July 10 severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.




























Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Source, Weather Prediction Center.













































Surface map forecasts.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Red line=Warm front
Blue line=Cold front

























































Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















...A stormy next few days in the Northland...

An unusually strong surface low, upper level low and trough will move northeast into the northern Plains through Monday -- A warm front attached to this low will lift slowly north/east and should move over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday.  A very unstable airmass west and south of that warm front will lift up and over this warm frontal boundary resulting in elevated CAPE values ranging from 1500-3000+ j/kg for Sunday and Monday.  The combination of lift/forcing near this warm front plus the unstable and moist airmass expected to be in place should lead to a couple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin beginning late tonight and continuing through Monday evening.

Hazards from thunderstorms will include frequent cloud to ground lightning and torrential rainfall which may lead to flooding.

Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail of 1.00 inch in diameter or larger and or damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Isolated tornadoes are also possible especially Monday afternoon/evening the way it looks now.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s; Highs Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with 80s possible depending on how much clearing can occur during the afternoon.

***Be weather aware through Monday***

Tim