Friday, July 8, 2016

July 8, 2016: 1-2" of rain in parts of the Northland last night. Areas of fog tonight; 70s and dry Saturday; Thunderboomers possible Sunday-Monday

/Issued 5:45 PM CDT, Friday, July 8, 2016/

18z NAM dew point temperature forecast valid at 7 PM Monday, July 11, 2016.  I also drew where the warm front, cold front and low pressure could be located early Monday evening.

The yellow outlined area on the map is the area I think has the best chance at seeing strong to severe thunderstorms develop before sunset Monday.

***This is just a preliminary forecast and will more than likely change a few times before Monday***
















Severe weather outlook for Monday, July 11, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















A widespread rain event last night-early this morning in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















Rainfall report for July 7-8, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Jacobson, MN:  2.43"
1 S of Hill City, MN:  2.09"
2 NNE of Bigfork, MN:  2.03"
5 E of Hibbing, MN:  2.01"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  1.80"

Makinen, MN:  1.54"
Libby, MN:  1.52"
Cook, MN:  1.45"
Grand Rapids, MN (Airport)  1.32"
Floodwood, MN:  1.22"

Walker, MN:  1.18"
International Falls, MN:  0.91
The Bay Of Grand Marais, MN:  0.79"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.79"
Hayward, WI (Airport)  0.73"

Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.72"
4 W of Grand Portage, MN:  0.71"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.63"
Ashland, WI:  0.61"
Washburn, WI:  0.60"

Glidden, WI:  0.57"
Danbury, WI:  0.54"
Bayfield, WI:  0.45"
Siren, WI:  0.41"
Phillips, WI:  0.38"

Brainerd, MN:  0.33"
4 SSE of South Range, WI:  0.32"
Superior, WI:  0.29"

Local Storm Reports for July 7-8, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*12:06 AM CDT 7/8:  HAIL.  0.25".  NW Hinckley, MN (Pine County)

*6:21 PM CDT 7/7:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 S of Backus, MN (Cass County)  10 to 12 inch diameter live pine tree downed.

*One tornado report in far northwest Minnesota on July 7, 2016*
Source:  Storm Prediction Center

*6:35 PM CDT:  TORNADO.  3 E of Beltrami, MN (Polk County)

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 8, 2016

A nice spin churning through the Great Lakes today as a strong surface and upper level area of low pressure exits off to the east.  A moist cyclonic flow on the backside of this system kept skies generally overcast although there has been some sun peeking out at times.  Showers have also been scattered about the area today with brief locally heavy downpours this afternoon in a few locations.  Highs today were in the 60s to lower 70s which is below average by 10-15 degrees.  Winds were out of the north, northwest or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 8)

Scattered showers will linger this evening under mostly cloudy skies -- Clear to partly cloudy late with areas of fog which could become dense.  Lows in the 50s with 40s in the typical cold spots.  Winds out of the north, northwest or east becoming variable.

Saturday (July 9)

Areas of fog in the morning otherwise dry  through the evening hours under mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies.  Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s with 60s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly after midnight and generally confined to western-northwest sections of the area the way it looks now.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds Saturday will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Warm and humid Sunday and Monday with highs both days in the 70s and 80s with some locations close to 90 degrees especially on Monday, it will be cooler though along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Dew points will likely be in the 60s to lower 70s Sunday and Monday so it will feel muggy.

An unusually strong surface and upper level low pressure system will lift slowly north/northeast through the western high plains and northern plains Sunday and Monday.  A warm front moving into the Northland could help spawn showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend with more showers and thunderstorms possible Monday due to a warm front and also a cold front which approaches from the west Monday night.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the Northland Sunday and Monday but timing of Monday's storms is uncertain as a strong cap (Warm temperatures aloft) builds into the Upper Midwest with 700mb temperatures of +12 to around +16 degrees Celsius moving into the area.

---More on Monday's setup below---

The strong cap that's forecast to develop Monday could delay thunderstorm development until after 7-8 PM with storms initiating in western areas, then moving toward the east later in the night.  There will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorms with the high moisture content in place along with the warm temperatures.  Lots of energy too with CAPE forecast to be in the 1500-3000+ j/kg range.  Low level jet is forecast to increase to 30-45 knots Monday afternoon/evening with around 30-40 knots of mid level wind while upper level winds of 60-80 knots will be found to our west and north -- Still a few days away but the trends showing up in the computer models for Monday continue to support a risk of severe thunderstorms although there is uncertainty on when will storms develop and also in what area/s of the state.  Stay tuned!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Isolated showers this evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts this evening.

Saturday - Areas of fog early otherwise partly cloudy.  High 71 to 76.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Saturday:  5:24 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   9:03 PM CDT

Tim