Wednesday, July 6, 2016

July 6, 2016: Cooler on Thursday with a breeze out of the east; Showers, few thunderstorms Thursday-Friday

/Issued 8:39 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 6, 2016/

Water vapor satellite image from 8:25 PM CDT this evening.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















Severe weather outlook for Thursday, July 7, 2016.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 6, 2016

A much quieter day compared to Tuesday.  Sky conditions varied between partly sunny to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Dew points weren't terribly high and were generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Tonight (July 6)

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms could move into portions of the area especially after midnight.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with a variable wind direction at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday (July 7)

A rather strong upper level trough currently over the northern Rockies this evening will intensify even more as it moves east into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest -- This upper trough combined with an area of low pressure which is forecast to move northeast out of the central Plains should lead to widespread coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Northland Thursday and Thursday night.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday but a lot of this will depend on how unstable it can get.  At the moment it looks like clouds and showers could be rather persistent through the day which would limit surface heating which would then help to keep the amount of instability on the low side, generally a few hundred j/kg over the Northland.

Mid and upper level winds and the amount of wind shear look decent tomorrow so if we can heat up and become unstable enough, then scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon-evening hours in parts of north central and east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible Thursday along with areas of fog around Lake Superior.

Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 70s with 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  South or east winds tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph, higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Winds tomorrow night out of the west, south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday as low pressure at the surface and aloft exits to the east.  It will be cool on Friday with highs generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Saturday looks nice with highs in the 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday - Breezy and cooler.  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional showers.  High 66 to 71, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Rain chances continue Thursday night into Friday along with cool temperatures with highs Friday mainly in the 60s.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  76
Low:  55

Sunrise Thursday:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:04 PM CDT

Tim