Monday, July 18, 2016

July 18, 2016: Warm and humid with a chance for a few thunderstorms the next few days. Flood update in this post

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Monday, July 18, 2016/

Future radar valid at 7 PM Tuesday, July 19 per 12z WRF-NSSL model; Pivotalweather.com

Two possible solutions as to how things could play out for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - Low confidence on either solution though.
















Tuesday's severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Wednesday's severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.


























Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Flood update as of 6 PM Monday, July 18, 2016.
Source:  readywisconsin.wi.gov

http://readywisconsin.wi.gov/flooding/NorthernWI2016.asp

http://readywisconsin.wi.gov/news/2016/IncidentReport12NorthernFlooding.pdf

Flood warnings remain in effect for the green shaded areas on the map.  More information at the link below.  Source, NWS Duluth, Minnesota

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20warning
















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 18, 2016

Skies ranged from partly to mostly sunny today with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.  Late afternoon dew points were generally in the 50s.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (July 18)

High pressure moves off to the east.  Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in a narrow corridor across east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Lows in the 50s to lower 60s with 40s possible in far northeast Minnesota.  Winds out of the west or northwest will becoming east or southeast later in the night.

Tuesday (July 19)

Southerly flow commences tomorrow with high pressure to our east and low pressure over the northern Plains -- A warm front connected to that northern Plains low will remain well to the southwest of the Northland.  Should be dry during the day in our area under partly cloudy skies with highs in the 70s and 80s with dew points in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Lows will be in the 60s to lower 70s with 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Very muggy and warm weather Wednesday and Thursday with dew points ranging from 65 to 75 degrees while high temperatures rise into the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times in parts of the Northland mid to late week but warmer temperatures aloft (CAP) may prevent storms from developing, but if they can develop they could be strong to severe with lots of instability, moisture and warm air in place along with some wind shear.  Torrential rainfall, high winds and hail would be the main threats if storms can develop during the mid-late week time frame.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming east late.

Tuesday - Partly to mostly sunny.  High 76 to 81 but cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:34 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim