Saturday, July 16, 2016

July 16, 2016: Near record cold in Duluth and International Falls this morning (Saturday) Record low broken this morning at Marquette, MI. Scattered showers/t-storms and turning muggy through Sunday; Flood update and first half of July climate stats in this post

/Issued 7:49 PM CDT, Saturday, July 16, 2016/

Blue shaded area on map=Severe thunderstorm watch valid until 2 AM CDT tonight.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Possible hazards:

-Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely.
-Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.00 in diameter possible.


















Tonight's severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Sunday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.




























Flood warnings continue in the green shaded areas on map.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota; More information at the link below.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20warning
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Source:  readywisconsin.wi.gov; NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Damage to homes and businesses in northwest Wisconsin

Ashland County:  Affected/minor damage:  70
Sawyer County:  Affected/minor damage:  112; Total:  $100,000

Damage to Public Infrastructure (Roads, Bridges, Trails)

Ashland County:  $1,016.000
Burnett County:  $375,000
Douglas County:  $750,927
Iron County:  $11,510,000
Sawyer County:  $470,000
Dept. of Natural Resources (recreating trails)  $100,000

Total:  $14,221,927

Additional information on the devastating floods that hit northwest Wisconsin this week can be found at the links below.

http://readywisconsin.wi.gov/flooding/NorthernWI2016.asp

Road closures map:  http://wem.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=9a1cdd23ae994741bf6980b4aeaf195a

First half of July climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 1-15, 2016

Average temperature:  65.4 degrees
Departure:  0.0 degrees (Normal)

Total precipitation:  3.44"
Departure:  +1.40" above normal

5 thunderstorm days

14 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
3 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F

Record and near record cold this morning, July 16, 2016

Duluth, Minnesota:  Low temperature 49 F (Record low 44 F set in 1958) Missed the record by 5 degrees.

International Falls, Minnesota:  Low temperature 43 F (Record low 39 F set in 2014) Missed the record by 4 degrees.

Marquette, Michigan:  Record low temperature of 39 F (Previous record was 43 F set in 1974, 1973 and in 1963)

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 16, 2016

A crisp start to the day which turned into a real nice mid July day around the Northland under partly to mostly cloudy skies -- Highs were in the 70s to around 80 degrees with comfortable dew point temperatures which were mainly in the 50s.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  A few showers passed through parts of far northern Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin today but the majority of the area stayed dry.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (July 16)

Low pressure which was over southwest South Dakota early this evening is forecast to move east/northeast reaching southwest Minnesota toward daybreak.  A warm front and trough attached to this low will head toward the Upper Midwest during the night.  A low level jet is expected to increase to around 30-40 knots later tonight which will transport humid air into the Northland.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible throughout the area tonight but a lack of instability should keep the storms below severe levels.  Heavy downpours are possible though as PWATS build to around 1.50".  Low temperatures will be in the 60s with 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday (July 17)

Muggy and mild with a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  An area of low pressure is forecast to move east through the Upper Midwest while two cold fronts pass through the Northland.  Dew points are expected to climb into the 60s to around 70 degrees in our area on Sunday with drier air returning Sunday night.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could be affecting parts of the Northland Sunday morning then some clearing may develop and if that happens this would allow for a fairly unstable airmass to develop during the afternoon hours with CAPE possibly in the 1000-2000 j/kg range especially over east central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.  Mid and upper level winds will be on the strong side with deep layer wind shear in the 30-40 knot range.  Its uncertain how things will play out Sunday but there is potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in portions of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin especially Sunday afternoon.

Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the west or south at 10 to 20 mph turning to the west or northwest Sunday night.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Mainly dry weather on Monday with highs in the 70s.  Temperatures warm into the 80s in most of the area Tuesday with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm as warm, moist and unstable air pushes into the Upper Midwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms also possible after midnight.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday - Humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Dew points in the 60s.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:57 PM CDT

Tim