Friday, July 15, 2016

July 15, 2016: 70s, maybe around 80 degrees Saturday; Risk for showers/t-storms this weekend. Some thoughts on the warm up for mid to late next week

/Issued 4:24 PM CDT, Friday, July 15, 2016/

At the moment it looks like the heaviest rainfall could setup just south of the Brainerd Lakes area and northwest Wisconsin for Saturday night but some rain is still expected in these areas, and of course things could change as to where the heaviest corridor of rain sets up for Saturday night.  Stay tuned.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Saturday, July 16 severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.














Sunday, July 17 severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.














Things could change but here's what I'm expecting in Duluth for mid to late next week.

















Record high temperatures for Duluth, Minnesota for July 20-22

July 20:  98 degrees set in 1901
July 21:  93 degrees set in 1960
July 22:  95 degrees set in 1941

Record high temperatures for International Falls, Minnesota for July 20-22

July 20:  97 degrees set in 1923
July 21:  96 degrees set in 1923
July 22:  103 degrees set in 1923

Note:  At the moment I don't think any record highs will be tied or broken at International Falls, but Duluth may set or tie a record high on July 21st.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















-Flood update-
Stories via Duluth News Tribune

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4073874-floodwaters-receding-moose-lake-agate-days-scheduled-weekend

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4074419-floodwaters-affecting-homes-forcing-road-closures-hayward

Flood warning information per NWS Duluth, Minnesota:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20warning

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 15, 2016

There's been more sun today compared to previous days but clouds have also been developing and moving through the area with a few spotty showers popping up this afternoon.  Highs were in the mid 60s to low 70s with northwest or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (July 15)

Spotty showers will continue this evening with dry weather overnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s with 40s in the typical cold spots.  Winds variable to east at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday (July 16)

High pressure will move off to the east tomorrow as low pressure moves into the western High Plains and northern Plains -- Warm and moist air will be lifting north into the Upper Midwest out ahead of this system and that combined with a strengthening low level jet to around 30-35 knots will cause some showers and thunderstorms at times tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Note:  Severe potential in our area will be on the low side with marginal instability in place but locally heavy rainfall is possible as dew points climb to around 60 degrees with PWATS of around 1.00-1.50".

Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as an area of low pressure moves through the Upper Midwest along with a warm front and cold front.  At this time it looks like the greatest instability/potential for a few severe thunderstorms will be to our south but with a muggy airmass in place locally heavy rainfall will be possible in parts of the Northland.  Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

Dry weather returns on Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly to mostly cloudy.  Spotty showers early.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east around 12 mph.

Saturday - Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday night into Sunday - Showers and thunderstorms possible at times.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Saturday:  5:31 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:58 PM CDT

Tim