Wednesday, July 13, 2016

July 13, 2016: Scattered showers through Thursday with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees

/Issued 7:34 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 13, 2016/

One of the big stories for next week will be the potential heat wave across the Plains, possibly spreading north into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Here's the 500mb height map valid for Wednesday, July 20, 2016 -- Troughs in the far northwest U.S. and far northeast U.S. while a large/massive ridge covers the rest of the U.S.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com














500mb height map valid for Saturday, July 23, 2016.  Not much change between July 20 and 23.

Note:  I'm not real sure how hot it will get next week here in the Northland, a lot will depend on whether or not we see thunderstorm complexes develop and track through the area on the north edge of the most intense heat, if this happens then temperatures might not get too out of hand around our area, but if thunderstorms don't occur, then widespread 90+ degree temperatures would probably occur in most of the Northland mid to late next week.




























Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 13, 2016

Strong area of low pressure averaging 990mb was over northern Ontario Province early this evening (Note, the 12z EUROPEAN ensemble model had this low at 986mb at 12z/7 AM today; Very impressive for July)

Mostly cloudy skies covered northern Minnesota today while a mix of sun/clouds which trended toward cloudier sky conditions during the afternoon in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs ranged from the 60s in northern Minnesota to the 70s and lower 80s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Another day featuring strong winds out of the southwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Showers have been moving across northern Minnesota today while an area of stronger thunderstorms moved quickly northeast through portions of Price and Iron Counties in northwest Wisconsin late this morning/early this afternoon.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 13)

Scattered showers will persist most of the night under mostly cloudy or partly cloudy skies.  Brief heavy downpours are possible especially this evening.  An isolated thunderstorm could also develop this evening.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with west, southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday (July 14)

Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers.  Cooler with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s with 40s possible in the traditional cold spots.

Strong area of low pressure over Ontario Province will continue to move off toward the east through Thursday while one cold front exits to the south/east this evening which will be followed by a secondary cold front which moves through the Northland on Thursday.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Still a risk for a few isolated showers on Friday although most of us 'should' stay dry.  Highs will be in the 70s.

A chance for showers or thunderstorms at times this weekend as low pressure heads into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s, maybe around 80 degrees.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday - Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible.  Cooler.  High 65 to 70.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Thursday:  5:29 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:59 PM CDT

Tim