Monday, July 11, 2016

July 11, 2016: Heavy rain/t-storm potential through tonight; Flash flood risk in southern parts of the Northland. Storm reports and rainfall reports included in this post

/Issued 1:24 PM CDT, Monday, July 11, 2016/

Flash flooding possible through 6 PM today, July 11 in the orange outlined area on the map.  More information at this link:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0453&yr=2016
























Updated severe weather outlook through tonight.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.




























Upper Midwest radar loop through 1 PM CDT today, July 11, 2016.  Source, WSI.














Infrared satellite image from around 4:30 AM today.  Source, UnisysWeather.com


















Infrared satellite image from 11:30 AM today.  Source, UnisysWeather.com


















*Local Storm reports for July 11, 2016*Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*6:30 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  44 mph.  8 WNW of Minong, WI (Washburn County)

*6:55 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch diameter.  Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

*5:13 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  47 mph.  2 E of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)

*4:00 AM CDT:  HAIL.  1.00 inch diameter.  1 SE of Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:59 AM CDT:  HAIL.  1.50 inch diameter.  1 ESE of Ironton, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:58 AM CDT:  HAIL.  1.00 inch diameter.  1 S of Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:50 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.88 inch diameter.  Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  Dime to nickel size hail.

*3:46 AM CDT:  HAIL.  1.00 inch diameter.  1 NE of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:45 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch diameter.  2 ENE of Gull Lake, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:41 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  51 mph.  3 WNW of Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)  ASOS station Brainerd Airport.

*3:41 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  59 mph.  3 WNW of Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)  Brainerd RAWS.

*3:39 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch diameter.  2 WNW of Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:30 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  1 S of Jenkins, MN (Crow Wing County)  10 inch diameter tree down.

Preliminary rainfall totals through around 1 PM today, July 11, 2016
Source:  MesoWest.com

Brainerd, MN:  1.89"
Aitkin, MN:  1.56"
Hayward, WI:  1.21"
McGregor, MN:  1.18"

Walker, MN:  0.92"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.88"
Cloquet, MN:  0.73"
Siren, WI:  0.71"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.69"

Eveleth-Virginia, MN:  0.66"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.56"
Ely, MN:  0.56"
Superior, WI:  0.56"
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.54"

Grand Marais, MN:  0.54"
Ashland, WI:  0.51"
Orr, MN:  0.32"
Cook, MN:  0.31"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.27"
Bigfork, MN:  0.24"
International Falls, MN:  0.20"

At Noon today -- Low pressure of 1000mb was over eastern South Dakota with another low of 998mb over southeast Saskatchewan Province.  A warm front has finally lifted north into Minnesota early this afternoon but this boundary was way down in southern Minnesota.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms containing torrential rainfall and dangerous lightning have been occurring since early Monday morning north of this warm front across western, central and eastern Minnesota into parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  A few of the storms in southern parts of the Northland have been strong to severe this morning.

It does appear that scenario number one which I mentioned in Sunday's blog is playing out today -- Were seeing redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along with thick cloud cover across central Minnesota early this afternoon, what this will do is help to hold the warm front farther south, in fact I don't even think this warm front will reach the I94 corridor in central Minnesota later this afternoon.  The convection firing north of that warm front is preventing this front from lifting very far to the north today.

Storms that occur in the Northland through tonight will mostly be elevated as most unstable cape ranges from around 500-2000 j/kg with the higher values likely remaining over southern portions of the area.  The chance for surface based thunderstorms have diminished considerably the way it looks now as temperatures won't be able to warm much thanks to the lingering clouds and rain this afternoon.

There is still a chance for a few severe thunderstorms mostly over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through tonight with hail and possibly strong wind gusts being the main hazards as storms should be elevated in our area.

I think the bigger concern that is setting up in parts of the Northland is the potential for flash flooding into this evening -- Dew points of 70-75 degrees across the southern half of Minnesota combined with PWATS of 1.50-2.00" will lead to very heavy rainfall rates in thunderstorms...If storms train or move over the same location for a few hours, then rainfall totals of 2-4" will likely occur and this may lead to flooding.

Tim